A thread on the recent failed coup in Gabon. Here's what the coup makers did well & poorly & why it failed. If this topic interests you I also suggest you read my book on why some coups succeed, others fail, and what happens during amazon.com/Seizing-Power-… (1/n)
Caveat: This is based on the little bit of information I have been able to glean about what went down last night. Here's how coups work. When a coup attempt begins, officers with command responsibilities look around and try to figure out what will happen next. (2/n)
Their primary concern is to avoid a situation where the coup spirals out of control into a civil war, like the Spanish civil war. That is, what they want most of all is to avoid unnecessary bloodshed. They also don't want to be on the losing side, or to have their men die (3/n)
This means they will try to figure out which side is going to prevail and join that side, even if they don't actually want that side to win. An officer told me it would be selfish of him to put his own political preferences over the good of the military and the nation (4/n)
This is what game theorists call a coordination game. There are two coordinated outcomes (everybody supports the coup, everybody supports the government). Different actors prefer one over the other. But they all agree that these are better than a civil war (5/n)
A coordination game is resolved when a focal point emerges, that is, when a set of beliefs emerge about what others are likely to do, and what others believe others will do, etc. These beliefs are self-fulfilling. (6/n)
A side which is initially weak can succeed, as long as everybody believes it will. A side which is initially strong can fail, if everybody believes it will lose. That latter case is how the Soviet coup fell apart. Almost done with the general remarks (7/n)
To shape expectations requires control of public information/common knowledge. That is you need to either control what happens in a meeting of key commanders or what is on the radio AND you need to convince people that the coup's success is a fait accompli (8/n)
In Gabon, the coup makers were smart to seize the radio station. This was essential. However, as junior officers, they had very little credibility, especially in a country where the regular army is weak and the Presidential guard is strong (9/n)
What's more, their broadcast was weak. They asked for people to rise up, and for the military to rally behind them, meaning they had little support to start with. This admission probably doomed their effort (10/n)
To be fair, they were playing a very weak hand to start. Most coups from the bottom fail. To succeed in a mutiny you often have to rip the structure of military apart, because no officers want the country to be ruled by a Lt. And this is difficult to do (11/n)
It's not impossible. Coups have succeeded in Liberia, Ghana, and Ivory Coast (among others) this way. But to set off a wide mutiny (or convince senior officers that one is coming so they shouldn't fight back) is a difficult task (12/n)
A smarter method is to claim to be making an announcement for more senior military leaders who will be there shortly. This is what Gaddafi did. It took a month for people to realize that the coup's head was a Captain and not one of the powerful Colonels who (13/n)
Everybody had been expecting would launch a coup. But in Gabon, I don't know if they even had those beliefs to build upon. So this was a high stakes gamble on their part. They lacked credibility and failed (14/n)
Once again, I talk a lot about coup dynamics and outcomes with many examples at greater length in my book amazon.com/Seizing-Power-… and I would love for you to read it, whether you buy it or get it from a library (FIN)
ADDENDUM Also, I suggest you read Maggie Dwyer @MagDwyer if you are interested in African mutinies. Here is her book amazon.com/Soldiers-Revol…
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