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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
For those just catching up to the need for domestic consensus to support international agreements including Brexit - this April 2018 paper expands on this and the other factors you need for success in international negotiations ecipe.org/publications/a…
Technically the paper concerned the UK's future trade policy, but 9 months ago it was obvious that the UK Government was failing to build consensus, establish clarity of objectives, or operate transparently - the first three of the essential requirements
I'm still not sure we've learned that international negotiations must be cross-party - people still say to me surely it would be better if the PM had a majority - but the Conservative Party would still have been split three ways (at least)
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Would it surprise you considerably that this Juncker / Tusk letter appears to change nothing? consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press…
Made very clear up front - we are not in a position to make changes... well we're not going to tell you otherwise
Temporarily could still mean 10 years, or probably 50. And the political declaration being of the same package doesn't mean much when it it still "of a different nature"
Read 8 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Questioning common Brexit wisdom... If MPs supported the Norway option I think the Withdrawal Agreement will actually need substantial attention with particular reference to the numerous mentions of transition period
Take for example Article 128 Paragraph 5 which as I'm sure you're all aware deals with UK representation at expert meetings during the transition period. This would not be the right formulation for an EEA-bound country.
I don't think anyone has fully read and digested the Withdrawal Agreement in full, which should worry people more than it appears to. See also my earlier thought that the Irish backstop may be unimplementable
Read 4 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Monday morning Brexit digest, and we start with the not-at-all surprising news of a cross-party group of MPs saying if the PM cannot find a consensus then it should fall to a group of MPs
This is a quite obvious development in a situation where there is no Parliamentary confidence in either the Prime Minister or the Leader of the Opposition, and both are failing to play their roles as laid down in the constitution. And it has been building.
The PM has if anything devalued her position further this morning by making a comparison to the Welsh referendum - where she personally opposed the outcome and voted against it. Off the scale incompetence....
Read 7 tweets

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Holger Hestermeyer
@hhesterm
As today is not the big #Brexit day we all thought, some thoughts on #Brexit, Lexit, gilets jaunes & austerity, trying to make sense of it all (thread)
On the face of it, Lexit, the idea of a leftist, pro-social policy Brexit is easily dismissed. Yes, inequality is a problem in the UK, so are regional disparities, austerity is tearing apart the social fabric, there’s real poverty (as demonstrated by the @Alston_UNSR), but...
@Alston_UNSR ... none of this has to do with the EU. The EU is full of countries with policies that are more to the left. The UK is not in the Euro. And worse: why exactly would the UK, always at the conservative side on the EU suddenly turn to the left outside of it?...
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UK Rants: #StandUp4Brexit
@uk_rants
The #Brexit rant 👇
1) In 2015 Cameron went to EU for reform.
I said, if he returns with something tangible, I'd support his choice on EURef (Remain, turns out).
EU sent him home with his tail between his legs & made me a hardened #Brexit supporter, when I saw them humiliate him.
2) Cameron was a giant amongst mere clowns, but they still disrespected him.
He stands above every one of them, as the leader who steered his nation best through the choppy waters of the 2008 economic crash.
They had no RIGHT to humiliate the man.
3) Ever since then, EU has been arrogant & constantly felt entitled to humliliate our PM.
I've gone from being willing to listen & possibly Remain, to wanting out on whatever terms necessary.
WTO is my benchmark, I'll accept a reasonable deal, but no half-way measures at all.
Read 21 tweets
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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
1) Central #Brexit conundrums
It's comical & depressing that the current problems in #Brexit were set in stone 2 years ago by brexit leadership & have hamstrung it since

Brexit reduces to the following:
-The impossible deal
-The frameworks
-The wrong audience
-The failed joker
2) the Impossible deal
Vote Leave won promising a pain free, cost free, FoM free #Brexit
This cannot be delivered

Any meaningful Brexit will hit the economy badly

Any Brexit that doesn't will be a "betrayal of leave!!"

Any party delivering either will be destroyed
3) the Frameworks
The SM, CU & other entities are legal frameworks, made up of EU treaties, WTO & international law.

It is perfectly reasonable for the UK to opt in or out of these frameworks.

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Jon Worth
@jonworth
1/ A quick, rough thread on what's in the Transition Guidelines, and what the text can mean. The PDF of the guidelines is here: consilium.europa.eu/media/32504/xt…
2/ "In particular, the provisions of the Citizens' rights part of the
withdrawal agreement should apply as from the end of the transition period" page 4. De facto #Brexit date for FoM is hence end 2020.
3/ Para 13. "Notwithstanding paragraph 18 of these negotiating directives, the Union acquis should apply to and in the United Kingdom as if it were a Member State." Para 18 is about institutions, hence everything else applies.
Read 15 tweets
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Int Trade Committee
@CommonsIntTrade
At 10am today, we will hear from @GuillaumeVdLoo, @SMerler and @StevenBlockmans on the continuing application of EU trade agreements after #Brexit. Then we will question @GregHands, Minister of State for Trade Policy. Watch live at goo.gl/pE6nF3 #UKTrade
. @GuillaumeVdLoo tells us 'copying and pasting' existing EU FTA is not feasible. There are legal and technical issues regarding tariff rate quotes, political challenges in negotiation etc. Exchange of letters is more practical but has technical issues. #UKTrade
.@StevenBlockmans agrees that an exchange of letters is the preferred option. This requires EU cooperation and is a 'damage limitation' exercise for the UK & EU. Ratification is lengthy. It's 'wishful thinking' to scrap all references to the EU in trade agreements. #UKTrade
Read 23 tweets
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Int Trade Committee
@CommonsIntTrade
Watch our evidence session today on maintaining EU trade agreements post #Brexit. We'll hear from Lord Hannay and @LORDMARKPRICE We're streaming live from 10am at goo.gl/b3yfgp #UKtrade
Lord Hannay is increasingly worried that the Secretary of State & @tradegovuk aren't giving sufficient priority to countries with which EU has FTAs. A standstill/ transition agreement will delay when these issues will arise, as the UK will stay in the Customs Union. #UKTrade
.@LORDMARKPRICE says what's needed by March 2019: 1 WTO schedules needed to be posted. 2 Anti-dumping & anti-subsidy legislation and to carry over EU FTAs (hence Trade Bill). 3 Pursue “transitional adoption” with parties to EU FTAs. 4 New FTAs post-Brexit #UKTrade
Read 13 tweets

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