Thread by @ichbinilya

A bit late on this, but Russia’s prestigious Levada Center (@levada_ru), an independent polling organization, released an interesting summary at the end of last year of what’s been up in Russian public opinion. Here’s a quick thread with the highlights. /1

The main takeaway is this: The authorities’ attempts to keep the population focused on the country’s “greatness” are starting to fail, in light of living standards that are slowly but steadily falling. /2

This “greatness” narrative (the article uses the nearly untranslatable term “великодержавный настрой населения”) encompasses state patriotism, confrontation with the West (especially the US), an emphasis on Russia’s “special path,” and traditional values. /3

None of this is new — it’s been pushed by state media, semi-official NGOs, education, and other channels for years. It then got a huge boost after the annexation of Crimea, and for another few years, it worked. But in 2018 it started to crack.

Some example stats follow.

/4

- Anti-US sentiment has returned to mid-2000 levels: 42% of Russians feel “some positivity” towards US. (51% among 18-24 yo's)
- 43% are worried about Russia’s isolation (was 29% in 2017). Similar %s on sanctions.
- 79% hope confrontation w/ the West will ease (was 45-50%)

/5

So what’s going on? Levada says that Russians are no longer confident that their country’s “greatness” means anything for their prospects for a better life. There’s a growth of “irritation, dissatisfaction, and uncertainty about the future.” /6

This was catalyzed by the extremely unpopular raising of the pension age this summer (90% against; 8% for). But this also triggered pent-up frustration about falling living standards that has been brewing for a while. (Real incomes are down 11-14% since Crimea). /7

In Nov 2018, 39% of respondents said their family’s financial situation has worsened (9% improved). The number of those “confident about tomorrow” has fallen from 40-52% (2014) to 28-44% (2018).

/8

As a result, Putin’s ratings have fallen from 80% at the beginning of the year to 66% at the end. Still not too bad — but also, the % of those “willing to protest” has risen from 8-15% to 23-30%. And it’s not just the Moscow liberals — dissatisfaction spreading to the regions. /9

All of these tendencies are sharper among the youth. And no one is predicting any dramatic improvement in the Russian economy anytime soon. So the upshot is: Watch this space. 👀👀👀 /10

And here's a link to the Russian summary. FIN. levada.ru/2018/12/26/a-m…