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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Don't assume EU will now suddenly sacrifice Ireland and backstop because needs UK trade. EU will a) not want to be seen to abandon a member of the club in order to reach a deal with soon to be outsider UK (Remember the Spain-Gibraltar hold-up in Nov?) and 1
EU has repeated over and again it won't abandon the backstop. To extent that it - apart from other issues - will look weak if it suddenly changes position. Brussels will be mindful of reputation as tough customer in international world of trade deals. This isnt just about UK 2
EU hanging back till can work out if backstop is main sticking point in Westminster or if it's more about future EU-UK relationship. If backstop then expect some movement eventually but hardly likely to be unilateral out for UK or fixed time limit. Maybe a review at fixed time? 3
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
High level EU official tells me the PM is « wily »with her three day vote plan for mid March. Says with her timetable she’s turning up pressure on Brexiteers, Labour and the EU too /1
EU now can’t wait till 21 March summit to make offer on backstop in attempt to stop PM coming back for more. Will now have to make an ‘offer’ in time for 12 March meaningful vote /2
EU + UK sources say they’re in same ‘landing zone’ on backstop. EU knows MP’s want legally-binding assurances UK won’t end up ‘trapped’ in backstop customs union with EU. BUT same problem remains: EU happy to make clarifications, resisting introducing changes eg get-out clause /3
Read 8 tweets
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
If no extension is agreed before EU leaders 21 March Summit and
they're faced with reality of no-deal #Brexit -EU diplomats say
they're not sure what leaders might decide. I've been told a far
enough in the future fixed end date to backstop (eg 2025) might
materialise. Or not./12
The assumption would be that an EU-UK trade deal would be in place by that date - and if not - said one well-placed EU contact - "the
backstop would hardly be our only concern." But EU may well also choose NOT to blink last moment - as David Cameron discovered in 2015-16. /13
We’ll probably only find out when all backs are firmly against the wall .. If no extension agreed by then.. /14
Read 4 tweets
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
EU watching Westminster closely this week but not rushing to any
conclusions. Here is some of the key thinking in European capitals on
the main #Brexit issues of the day: /1
On Labour/second referendum: Corbyn seen in Europe as convinced
eurosceptic so EU is sceptical of his backing a second referendum. EU
has watched #Brexit turmoil long enough to see huge complications in
holding the vote and realise many leave voters have changed their
mind. /2
Of course EU would still rather UK stayed but Europe's leaders don't
see this as realistically on the cards right now. Most realistic,
considering turmoil in Westminster, says EU council President Tusk:
would be to extend article 50 leaving process. /3
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