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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
, 4 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
If no extension is agreed before EU leaders 21 March Summit and
they're faced with reality of no-deal #Brexit -EU diplomats say
they're not sure what leaders might decide. I've been told a far
enough in the future fixed end date to backstop (eg 2025) might
materialise. Or not./12
The assumption would be that an EU-UK trade deal would be in place by that date - and if not - said one well-placed EU contact - "the
backstop would hardly be our only concern." But EU may well also choose NOT to blink last moment - as David Cameron discovered in 2015-16. /13
We’ll probably only find out when all backs are firmly against the wall .. If no extension agreed by then.. /14
IMPORTANT TYPO correction: /2 above should read: EU realises many leave voters HAVENT changed their mind. My typo. Apols 😳
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
Increasingly clear for EU a short extension means until 23 May as European Commission has long been insisting. This is because of elections for European Parliament on that day /1
If UK wants longer extension it’d have to participate in elex for European Parliament. This isn’t churlishness on part of EU. There’s legal concern if UK remains EU member after 23May (it does as long as #Brexit delayed) but doesn’t contest elex then EP wld be unconstitutional /2
If PM goes for short extension till 23 May but then decides needs longer ext, she has to tell EU by 12 April - the date by which time UK would need to organise legally and practically taking part in elex for European Parliament .. so short ext could be really short /4
Read 5 tweets
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
Reax of EU diplomats I’m speaking to this morning on news PM will request a short #Brexit extension: « EU leaders will want to hear her reason first. Won’t just say yes » 1
@JunckerEU told German radio this morning a conclusion may not be reached by the EU (all 27 leaders must reach unanimous decision) this week. More talk of extra summit in Brussels next week possibly 28 March ... 2
Short ext makes sense to EU if PM can ram #Brexit deal through Parliament and ext is used to ratify the deal BUT EU leaders are doubtful . See parliament still v divided and Brussels won’t reopen backstop text/withdrawal agreement so.. 3
Read 5 tweets
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katya adler
@BBCkatyaadler
EU countries’ position on #Brexit delay being described to me still as a “cacophony” - some for short, others for long, some for strict conditions, others more relaxed BUT /1
EU decision on extension depends a) on what PM asks for b) on EU leaders once in a room together Thurs. Fair to say: all options stil on table and EU leaders want to avoid no deal. There will be no EU “no” to an extension request /2
There are legal and political issues mixed up in EU’s extension decision: /3
Read 9 tweets

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EFTA 4 UK
@EFTA4UK
BREXIT PREDICTION THREAD: 1/ #BREXIT
2/ Mrs May will not be able to get the backstop removed from the WA. She will however get some additional promises and clarifications from the EU.
3/ This will not be enough to satisfy the DUP (what would be?) but many MPs, worried about impending no-deal brexit, will vote in favour of Mrs May's deal.
Read 5 tweets
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Lord Snoutintrough #FBPE
@Rowland72James
#BREXIT craziness update so maybots deal is blown out of the water l. Similarly corbyns vote of no confidence fails and won't be backed by SNP and lib dems
Despite her #BREXIT deal being defeated by biggest margin a government has lost a vote ever maybot seeks concessions on backstop despite being told to bog off by the EU with no realistic hope of a different answer
Corbyn meanwhile refuses to talk #BREXIT without no deal being ruled out despite knowing she can't do this whilst maybot makes no concessions either.
Read 14 tweets
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Jon Worth
@jonworth
Before this week's #Brexit shenanigans, I said this:

"With May as Prime Minister there can be no Brexit deal"

I stand by that statement

I see no way that the #EUCO - ongoing as I write this thread - can give May anything that'll appease the Brexit hard liners in her party

🇪🇺 is not going to make the backstop time limited or allow 🇬🇧 to unilaterally withdraw it. So the deal on the table is essentially unchanged
The Tories reaching across the political divide to Labour still looks like a ridiculously long shot as well:
theguardian.com/politics/2018/…
Read 16 tweets
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David Carretta
@davcarretta
#Brexit: martedì potrebbe iniziare l'uscita di Uk senza accordo.

Tutti i governi Ue si stanno preparando con avvertimenti a cittadini, amministrazioni, imprese. Alcuni assumono migliaia di persone per le dogane.

Forse mi son perso qualcosa. Ma il governo italiano che fa?
Facciamo un esempio: in Italia risiedono 28.168 cittadini britannici.

Dopo la Brexit diventeranno extra-comunitari. Cosa ne facciamo in caso di no-deal? Tutti espulsi con foglio di via il 30 marzo?

Oppure li facciamo votare alle elezioni comunali come ora?
Un alto esempio banalotto: l'Italia esporta 760 milioni di euro di vino, di cui 300 milioni di prosecco.

In caso di no-deal servono doganieri per le pratiche di esportazione. E chi glielo dice ai trevigiani che devono prendersi un broker a Dover per sdoganare?
Read 10 tweets
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Alan Jenkins
@ajjenkins
#Brexit being discussed in Holyrood committee. @murdo_fraser asks @Feorlean if he’s read the draft bill. @Feorlean says he’s skimmed it, that he’s not a lawyer and that a lawyer would take three days of study to understand it.
They’re now talking about alien invasions and the choice between @theresa_may’s draft deal or no deal. 👽 #brexit
.@ProfTomkins asks @Feorlean if he’ll withdraw his comment comparing @jacob_rees_mogg to an alien. @Feorlean says it was a “joke misfired” #Brexit
Read 3 tweets
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Femi
@Femi_Sorry
Brexit Irony No.521:
Brexit would make Metropolitan Elitism worse-

The Brexit vote was against our London-centric system. So if there's an economic hit because of a Brexit London voted against, Westminster would make sure the London Banking sector survived but everywhere else...
Many of the problems that pushed people to vote Brexit had nothing to do with the EU. One of those problems was the government choosing to protect the banks who caused the crash with bailouts while ordinary people just got austerity.
The rich took irresponsible risks with the country's future, but they were protected either by moving their money away or by the government and it was those with least who suffered the most.
Sound familiar? #Brexit
Read 5 tweets

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