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#Brady united British nationalists but kills May’s deal. Parliament will have to choose between No Deal and abandoning at least some of May’s red lines. Thread 1/
British nationalists own UK’s negotiating position today. Brady has united May, Mogg, Johnson, Gove, Leadsom, DUP - and Skinner.
They own any victory - and they own any failure. They cannot credibly blame that on Remonaers and back-stabbers. 2/
They own any victory - and they own any failure. They cannot credibly blame that on Remonaers and back-stabbers. 2/
Brady has already failed. May will tour EU capitals - every one slam the door.
EU27 will show UK how EU deals with states that try and mess the EU around & divide it. 3/
EU27 will show UK how EU deals with states that try and mess the EU around & divide it. 3/
ERG & DUP will revert to No Deal.
May will still try to keep her party together (her sole aim). But how?:
- tell Parl she’s failed & ask them to endorse her Nov deal? (too much U-turn for her nationalism)
- deal with Tory EEA/?CUers? (too much U-turn...)
- back No Deal? 4/
May will still try to keep her party together (her sole aim). But how?:
- tell Parl she’s failed & ask them to endorse her Nov deal? (too much U-turn for her nationalism)
- deal with Tory EEA/?CUers? (too much U-turn...)
- back No Deal? 4/
3 possibilities for mid Feb:
Scenario A. May drops a red line, agrees to ask for A50 ext & gets a Parliamentary majority ( against a big Tory rebellion & cries of “sell-out”) 5/
Scenario A. May drops a red line, agrees to ask for A50 ext & gets a Parliamentary majority ( against a big Tory rebellion & cries of “sell-out”) 5/
Scenario B. May backs NoDeal and sees Tories resign whip, and a No Con vote. If she loses, UK has snap GE: Tory NoDeal vs Labour Deal. 6/
Scenario C. May continues the 3-way chicken game, nursing her dead Nov deal towards the A50 time limit hoping Parliament backs what British nationalists will call a humiliation. 7/7
