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Simon Usherwood
@Usherwood
, 6 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
As we all sit around for the next round of Brexit, a re-up for my piece from a few weeks back

ukandeu.ac.uk/the-three-dile…
May has two pathways for getting a majority on a new Meaningful Vote: rebuild her gvt coalition or reach across the aisle
the former needs her to offer at least a figleaf (and probably more) to backbenchers on the backstop
the latter needs her to recast the future relationship (as captured in the Political Declaration)
cross-partying is much simpler from EU's perspective, but primacy of party politics is pushing May to her side
as ever, what works best at one level works worst at another
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Simon Usherwood
@Usherwood
Trivial aside: why pick a party name that is more likely to annoy than to rouse? Especially from a man who wanted to rebadge UKIP as the Independence Party
If nothing else, it's a major pigeonhole of a party that might want to unfurl a wider political project
Maybe all the good nouns were taken...
Read 3 tweets
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Simon Usherwood
@Usherwood
So, a reworking of the PD and a UK legal commitment to follow through on these.

Only 2 problems
Firstly, even if there's a UK act, it can't stop a subsequent act overturning it
Secondly, you can't compel EU to agree to revised PD or to conclude deal on those terms
Read 4 tweets
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Simon Usherwood
@Usherwood
An oldie, but perhaps worth rehearsing the arguments once more:

1/
The issue with the Irish border is that there is simultaneously a need for a border (because the UK wants to leave the customs union and single market) and nowhere to put it (see graphic)

2/
What I didn't touch on then was what might be the way through this.

3/
Read 13 tweets

Related threads

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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Is the big #brexit climbdown beginning?

Are the Brexiteers about to decide to 'buy into' the idea that Mrs May can fix the Irish border with technology? That unicorns *do* exist?

Mad? Let me explain... 1/Thread
First @tnewtondunn reports Brexiteers like Iain Duncan Smith and co are 'biting' on a No 10 briefing that "special arrangements" could fix the Irish border - ie 'technology'



Then FT's Laura Hughes says 'Gang of Five' are too /2

@tnewtondunn Wow. Amazing....suddenly, after all these months of negotiating it seems like Number 10 has put it's hand down the back of the sofa and found a 'fix' for the border issue that has bedevilled these talks for all this time.

I love this quote particularly... /3
Read 24 tweets
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Jack D 🌹| #GTTO | ✋🏽
@JackDunc1
#Brexit *Thread*

To clarify, I am remain, but I feel a 2nd ref is monumentally risky & perhaps dangerous:-

1. Polls haven't changed much, result could easily be the same
2. Another campaign of hate will embolden the far right
3. If remain win. Leavers will demand another vote
4. Chaos & unrest are likely whatever the result, possibly violence too

What happens if it's still 'Leave'? Picture the chaos, square one. You're simply allowing the Tories more time to fail to come up with a solution. Every day that continues people in this country will suffer
What if it's 'Remain'? Leavers will, with some justification, query why this vote is more valid than the first. This has the potential to cause a constitutional crisis.

People can say 'we know the facts now' all they like, that will not placate millions of angry voters.
Read 11 tweets
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Katy Hayward
@hayward_katy
Getting the feeling that there's too much #brexit #backstop bravado and too little sense?

Howsabout a 4 slide summary from @DPhinnemore & me setting out what we can be pretty sure of and what the UK/EU (dis)agree on - as viewed from Northern Ireland.

1/5
1st: a lack of progress on the Protocol on NI/IRL in the draft Withdrawal Agmt.
All these colours have to turn green (i.e. agreed in principle & text) before we get that Deal for exit day next March.

Note that red circle - backstop is intended to be trumped at some point.
2/5
2nd: a summary of what is agreed on and what is still missing re: @BorderIrish and NI.
Note the extent of Northern Ireland-specific arrangements.

You've seen a version of this a couple of months ago. Not much progress here since you last saw it.

3/5
Read 6 tweets
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Stuart Budd #PeoplesVote 🇬🇧🇪🇺❄️
@StuartBudd1
#FBPE is on the same side as:
TUC
Unite, GMB & Community Unions
CBI, IoD, FSB, BCC & EEF
Labour NW & West Midland MPs
Majority of Labour MP's
Majority of UK population
UK public
Majority of Labour members
LibDem
Green Party
NUS
On: #CustomsUnion #SingleMarket & #PeoplesVote
The transport union, TSSA:
"The left should unite now and come together to stop this Tory act of war against our class...

Supporting Tory/UKIP Brexit is unacceptable class collaboration.
Full stop.

I like this. This is fighting talk

Ref:
tssa.org.uk/en/whats-new/n…

#StopBrexit !!
TSSA General Secretary, Manuel Cortes:

"Our focus is our people, their rights and those of their families, which includes retaining their ability to move across EU borders freely”.

TSSA was and is in favour of remaining in the EU.

tssa.org.uk/en/Your-union/…

#FBPE
#StopBrexit
Read 37 tweets
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Jane. Local. BSTS 🏳️‍🌈
@localnotail
At @CityREDI's #BrexitRegionalImpact workshop to "discuss the likely impact of Brexit on the West Midlands economy & agree on the urgent actions that need to be taken in the crucial months ahead"

Will business take a stand for #PeoplesVote or roll over?

birmingham.ac.uk/schools/busine…
It's hard to see how Brexit can be seen as anything but a disaster for the West Midlands, but I will listen to everyone and report back.
#BrexitRegionalImpact
#SaveBrum
What's really special about the CityREDI Brexit Impact studies is that they don't just cover the UK but also the rest of the EU.
BrexitImpact on the EU isn't as bad as on the UK but it's still bad. Hard to imagine maintaining good relations after this harm.
#BrexitRegionalImpact
Read 40 tweets
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John Rogan
@JRogan3000
I just published “Brexit Impact Studies (from Maria Ana Cataluna).” medium.com/p/brexit-impac…
have published a #NoDealBrexit study. I'll put a link in the Medium article. #brexitimpactreports #BrexitImpactStudies #Brexit #DavidDavis
go.pardot.com/l/372682/2017-…
published "Building Solidarity Across Borders: Gibraltar and Brexit" (July 17) icymi.
#BrexitImpactReports #BrexitImpactStudies #Brexit
unitetheunion.org/uploaded/docum…
Read 44 tweets

Trending hashtags

#Wales #Brexit #WebSummit17 #PeoplesVote #FARA #Prexit #StopBrexitSaveBritain #BREXIT #BrexitReports #border #BrexitBorder #brexit #BrexitAnalysis #FSS #EU #SadiqKhan #StopBrexit #LiftingTheVeilOfLies #BrexitImpactStudies #GTTO #FBPE #DavidDavis #IamEuropean #FFS #Windrush
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