, 7 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
Is it finally #infrastructure week?? As part of the current @EnergyUT study: The Energy Infrastructure of the Future, we have started compiling the value of the current energy system. Some things that might be useful in thinking about the #GND
First, the electricity sector. To rebuild the current (~2016) system tech for tech would cost about $5T, but that system is more than halfway depreciated, so it will need investment even for BAU. Also, we would likely not rebuild exact as-is going forward (coal, etc.)
In the current electricity system, more than half of the value is tied up in generation assets, transmission is only about 10% (although we fight over it the most it seems), and distribution accounts for about 35%.
But the sector is changing. Looking at the age and size of power plants, the markets have prefered to build smaller units as there is less capital risk and economies of scale for gas, wind, and solar can be realized in the 10s to 100s of MWs vs. GW-scales for coal and nuclear.
And although per customer TD&A costs have remained remarkably flat for decades, they are creeping up. Some of this is due to aging infrastructure that we built decades ago and some happens when we switch fuels, such as oil -> gas/coal in the 70's
Next, the natural gas sector. We estimate that to replace it would cost about $8T, but most of that is in the distribution lines (burying things is expensive). This sector is also heavily depreciated meaning it will need investment as well.
We are working on the oil sector, but we are not there yet... I am sure it also numbers in the trillions of dollars, but it will depend on where the box is drawn. My guess at this point ~$4-7T
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