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Where are we at in nuclear South Asia? Some reactions. 1/n
Indian government’s focus on Pakistan trying to target military installations in its press conference and the subsequent readout on “vulgar display” of the captured pilot suggest that retaliation is still on the minds of India leaders. 2/n
Pushing India towards retaliation is a massively embarrassed Modi, BJP’s politics. But not just that. Some in Indian security circles will insist on “strategic” grounds, see current moment as emboldening future Pakistan strategy. 2/n
With Balakot pol damage undone & credibility of deterrent restored, Pakistan wants an end to hostilities. Imran Khan and Ghafoor were very conciliatory, avoided saying things that might provoke. IK still saying I am willing to talk terrorism is significant, off-ramp. 3/n
Interestingly, or strangely, Pak seems to be not engaging US. Key data point for me is Pompeo not speaking to Imran, Dunford not speaking to Bajwa. Both spoke to the wrong/less important people in Pakistan at this critical time. State, Pentagon know who runs the show in Pak. 4/n
What are India’s major options next? 1) More air strikes 2) Limited war some kms into Pak. Militating against both is Pak’s nuclear signal from yesterday, which I believe Pak sent to deter rapid Indian retaliation post it’s own planned retaliation, not for int’l intercession. 5/n
Also, I won’t be shocked if Modi’s faith in Indian service chiefs has taken a hit. Interceptors falling for PAF’s trap & captured pilot are terrible for his domestic politics, which has been a driver of hostilities post Pulwama. But loss of face may push him to try again. 6/n
Goes without saying, troubling, dangerous situation in South Asia. Nuclear South Asia has never been this close to a disaster. Kargil 1999 didn’t involve that explicit a nuclear signal; 2001/2002 was pretty bad but there were no planes going down. So really scary. 7/7
here qualifier which I missed is that political damage undone and deterrent restored in the heads of Pakistani leaders, I think. Not an absolute statement.
