Thread by @DmitryOpines

1/ Joining the (CP)TPP, how would that work?

The CPTPP is the Taylor Swift of trade agreements. Just being photographed next to it really ups your street cred.

Yet, as Tom Hiddleston found out, it's worth finding out what's actually involved before getting too involved.

2/ In trade lingo, joining something which already exists is referred to as an 'accession'.

The CPTPP describes the procedure for accession in Article 4 of its 30th Chapter. You can read that here:

international.gc.ca/trade-commerce…

3/ Who is eligible?

The CPTPP automatically opens the door to accession to any member of APEC, and will upon unanimous approval by existing CPTPP Parties also consider any other state or customs territory.

List of APEC Economies attached:

4/ Any CPTPP Party can, at this stage, block a prospective accession from a non-APEC applicant.

If they don't the next step is the establishment of a working party with all interested CPTPP Parties. Unless the applicant is a tiny Pacific island, that will be all of them.

5/ Negotiations then commence.

Chances are, they consist of two parts:
1. Terms and Conditions
2. The acceding country's "schedule"

6/ - Terms and Conditions -

Most of the CPTPP's 30 chapters consist "horizontal" provisions, which apply to all CPTPP Parties.

For example, here is the Sanitary and Phytosanitary Chapter. If you are a CPTPP Party, you are bound by what's in it.

international.gc.ca/trade-commerce…

7/ If a Party joins the CPTPP, they are pledging to abide by everything in these chapters unless they can negotiate an exception or carve out for themselves.

Note: such an exception or carve out would have to be approved unanimously. Even a single objection means no accession.

8/ - Schedules -

In addition of the horizontal rules that apply equally to all CPTPP Parties, the agreement also includes so-called 'schedules' which lay out the individual 'offers' of each individual party in areas like tariffs, government procurement, and temporary entry.

9/ So for example, Japan's 7.7mb(!) tariff schedule lays out which products it will lower tariffs on for all other CPTPP members, and how quickly.

international.gc.ca/trade-agreemen…

10/ An acceding country would need to come up with offers on tariffs, government procurement, and temporary entry and then negotiate them with each existing CPTPP party.

It would not be able to join the CPTPP if even a single existing party thought the offers not good enough.

11/ You'll note I don't mention any discussion of new concessions by the existing CPTPP Members.

That's because unless they take the extraordinary step of re-opening the agreement, there won't be any. Their commitments are fixed and immovable, right there in the text.

12/ What does this mean in practice?

It means a member joining the CPTPP faces 11 one-way negotiations on any existing provision it doesn't want to sign up to and on the specific commitments its willing to make on tariffs, government procurement, and temporary entry.

13/ That sounds really hard, but is it possible?

Absolutely. If the CPTPP parties have decided to let a country join, they want to see it in there and they want access to its market.

Asking for absurd concessions would just spike the deal, which isn't in anyone's interest.

14/ My country is interested in joining, what will it have to give up to do so?

That's impossible to answer. As in all negotiations, it will depend on the political pressures facing all parties, the skill of negotiations and the engagement of stakeholders on all sides.

15/ Any final thoughts?

An Accession is different to a normal give and take negotiation because the 'take' is set in stone and only the 'give' can move. That makes it difficult.

Ye if you understand what's involved, you too can roll the dice on your own Hiddleswift CPTPP dream.