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GTA resale condo prices (per-square-foot) up 50% in the last three years & new condos up 65%. 
Urbanation is forecasting new condo sales of 18,500 in the GTA in 2019, slightly below the 10 year average.
For new condos that launched in 2018, 56% of the units sold during their opening quarter on the market, matching the 10-yr average.
Average new condo unit size in the ‘416’ area has actually trended upward over the past couple years. More ‘neighbourhood’ projects & luxury/penthouse units pulling the average up.
GTA pre-con inventory creeping up but completed & unsold developer inventory is still extremely low. #condo
Pauline of Urbanation mentions that when you pull out the two mega-project new condo cancellations in Vaughan last year, the level of annual cancellations are in-line with long-run average.
22k condos to occupy in 2019 (estimated), 29k in 2020. Projects are always delayed, so 2020 number will likely be much lower, but I believe that 30k is demanded (but more rental apartment completions expected).
2022 should be an interesting year, new condo investors will need rents of $5.30 psf to break even.
Next up is Marlon Bray of Altus Group to talk about construction costs.
Lots of upward price pressures.
TOCore plan requires larger units, means more expensive units - no discussion of it being draconian.
Lots of upward price pressures.
TOCore plan requires larger units, means more expensive units - no discussion of it being draconian.
About 20% of new condo prices go to the government. Profits getting squeezed.
Time is money.
Cost-push inflation. This is a thing. The “market” is not the only thing developers consider when setting prices.
Bray mentions that he can count on one hand how many construction projects he’s monitoring that are on schedule. Huge number of office projects under construction stealing trades from residential.
Ontario expect to lose 90,000 construction workers to retirement over the next decade, only 78,000 expected to start in construction based on past gains. Huge shortfall expected in labour.
Interesting note, if the city doesn’t allow a lane closure on a new apartment project, it can add $1M to $2M to the construction cost on the project per Altus.
Car culture! 😡
Car culture! 😡
Lots of orange and red on construction costs.
Formwork rose 37% last year, 15-20% overall for hard costs!
Formwork rose 37% last year, 15-20% overall for hard costs!
Bray says mid-rise development is a pain to build.
One of the main read we’ve seen more of them is that many developers can’t find or affordable the high-rise lands they want.
One of the main read we’ve seen more of them is that many developers can’t find or affordable the high-rise lands they want.
