Thread by @MollyMcKew

One of Estonia's annual reports is out -- these are great sources of info for regional overview.

"The only serious threat comes from Russia" should echo right there next to Scaparrotti's assessment that the US is not sufficiently prepared to deter this threat. /1

https://twitter.com/estonia_in_us/status/1105457752455987203

Here's a link to the report in English:

valisluureamet.ee/pdf/raport-201…

Will post some highlights below. /2

On increased attention to Chinese tech companies role in potential espionage:

"Neither can we ignore Russian software producers who cooperate with Russian authorities and special services on a daily basis."

Cc Silicon Valley /3

This: /4

Observations on a decade of Russian military exercises:

"First, the Russian armed forces are consistently practising for an extensive military conflict with NATO ."

Just read that again. /5

"Second, as the Russian armed forces see it, a military conflict with NATO will be sparked by a 'coloured revolution' in one of Russia’s neighbouring countries" like maybe Belarus. /6

"Third, the Baltic States are the part of NATO that it will be the easiest for Russia to attack in a crisis... In terms of military planning, Russia does not look at Estonia as a separate target, but as a part of NATO... /7

...Estonia has to be prepared for a military incursion from Russia even if the conflict b/w Russia & NATO is sparked by events elsewhere in the world. By inciting hatred b/w local ethnic groups in the Baltic States, Russia is trying to reserve pretext for military intervention"/8

"Fourth, a conflict between NATO and Russia would not be limited to military action in Eastern Europe or the Baltic States, but would also involve Russian attacks on Western European targets." Goes on to explain Kalibr missile system a vital aspect of this targeting /9

This, on Russian use of civilian vessels for military/strategic navel purposes is interesting given that commercial vessels were used in the blockade of the Kerch strait /10

Great graphic representation of domestic tensions inside Russia: /11

Another great graphic on how influence is used in Russian foreign policy /12

There are sections on Russian activities in Belarus, Ukraine, and the Caucasus that are worth reading.

Also a long evaluation of how Russia will seek to further destabilize Europe via influence in EU parliamentary elex in May /13

A section of the report summarizes Russian security service exposure in the West, and how to understand that /13

Russian security services increasingly using "hacker groups" and cybercriminals to conduct attacks, for deniability. /14

There's an interesting chapter on how the FSB collects signals intelligence, including a fun anecdote about how the use US Leadership Directories (federal and congressional yellow books) for targeting. /15

The section on Chinese influence includes another warning about backdoors in software/via other tech products /16

Finally, a warning that ISIS territory may be waning, but their focus on conducting small attacks in Europe has increased. There are some statistics about radicalization in Europe that are mightily depressing. /17