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Greg Ip
@greg_ip
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
1/ I have some sympathy for @bhgreeley's argument that demand for dollars is analogous to demand for oil with similarly detrimental effects on manufacturing; I made a similar argument about Canada in the early 90s when its interest rates were quite high ...
2/ But in reality, dollars are assets, not commodities. Dollar demand is a capital, not current, account transaction so what @bhgreeley describes is not Dutch disease but a "hot money"/overvalued currency problem or, for reserve issues like US/Swiss, a Triffin dilemma...
3/ And I wouldn't say Dutch disease is reserved for developing countries; Netherlands, UK and Norway aren't developing.
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Greg Ip
@greg_ip
1/9 A tweetstorm on reading q1 growth slowdown & whether tax cut is working. Deceleration from q4 (2.9% saar) to q1 (2.3%) distorted by hurricane-driven q4 spike in car sales & home repairs. Excluding motor vehicles and residential investment, growth went from 2% to 2.7%.
2/9 Year/year growth, which eliminates seasonality problems, rose to 2.9% - best since mid-2015. Excluding volatile net exports, inventories, and government, final sales to private domestic purchasers grew 3% y/y, still decent.
3/9 Does Trump get credit for getting close to 3% target? Complicated question, but probably not yet. We know a lot of slowdown in 2016 and pickup in 2017 was due to collapse and rebound in oil prices & drilling. Expect some tapering in coming year.
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Greg Ip
@greg_ip
My quickie tweetstorm analysis of the U.S./China trade conflict. 1/7: Both U.S. and China have mobilized but trade war has not begun. Both have left time to negotiate before implementing tariffs.
2/7 Whereas Trump jumped the gun on Sec. 232, announcing across the board steel & aluminum tariffs form which he eventually had to climb down, the 301 on China has so far been a graduated program leaving room to escalate/de-escalate.
3/7 Congressional Rs, allies and business saw 232 tariffs, Nafta & KORUS threats as needless attacks on allies. By contrast they agree China is a bad actor & action is warranted, though not necessarily this specific action. Gives Trump useful cover, staying power.
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Dannielle Blumenthal PhD
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