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WEDNESDAY MORNING: Once again. Too much to explain, so best to sum up.

First off, #OPEC and its rapidly disintegrating deal, and Trump's part in that as well. #OOTT #Iran
As is known, #Trump went out again on oil prices this morning - a week before the #OPEC deal that ratchets up, again, the tensions on whether #OPEC will do anything (which they're likely to do).
But figures we have show Saudi Arabia/Russia are already abandoning - or at least pulling away from - the deal. #OPEC #OOTT

13 Jun - RTRS - RUSSIA'S OIL PRODUCTION STOOD AT 11,1 MLN BARRELS PER DAY FROM JUNE 1-12, HIGHER THAN A QUOTA SET BY OPEC+ OIL CUT DEAL - TWO SOURCES
Read 31 tweets
Thread....
What is the size of the global #oil spare production #capacity?
1- Spare capacity doesn't matter, what matters is the "effective spare capacity", which is what you can bring on line within 90 days of crude quality that buyers are willing to buy.

#OPEC
2- therefore, there are three conditions:
a- Supply: has to be produced within 90 days
b- Demand: Buyers are willing to buy it: crude quality and price wise
c- Delivery: Ability to deliver to byers. Stranded #oil production with no pipeline to transport should not be counted,
3- Effective spare capacity can be maintained for a long period if needed. Here we have to distinguish between "effective spare capacity" and "surge capacity." If those countries have to increase production only for few days, they can use surge capacity, which is way higher
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