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Bruno Waterfield
@BrunoBrussels
, 7 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
One source: Belgium and France want extension to 7 May (that's before EU relaunch summit in Sibiu on 9th)
If UK indicated willingness to hold EP elections by 11 April then extension, if WA remains unratified by 7 May, could then be nine months - "Flextensio"
So 7 May, whatever happens with WA. If UK notifies EU election by 11 April then can extend until 31 December FLEXTENSION is a thing
This means EU27 are going for e decision tonight to avoid a summit next week
Or not. Wrangling, several dates in play
The perils of allowing European leaders to draft texts
Flextension still in play but now with a review clause (probably end of June) - to allow business to plan
Working dinner - so a decision to be attempted
This could be Theresa May's last ever summit
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Bruno Waterfield
@BrunoBrussels
This looks right
May appears to have hidden acquiesence to a long extension behind a date that is not a real cut off

Extension is indefinite - "as short as possible... ends when we pass a deal"
22 May is entirely aspirational - "would want to.. ensure it is passed before 22 May"
This is why Tusk - presumably after a phone call - took a cautious line
Read 4 tweets
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Bruno Waterfield
@BrunoBrussels
Interesting. Where will the checks - to preserve the EU's single market integrity - take place?
French officials have been "absolutely, categorically clear" , according to one source, that no deal would mean checks between Ireland and the EU.
"That's if Ireland wants to stay in the EU,"
One Irish official said to have joked that his country's no deal plan was to tell people to stop trading with Northern Ireland
Read 3 tweets
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Bruno Waterfield
@BrunoBrussels
Lots there
Barnier has very much kept the door open today but spelt out the EU’s terms and conditions if the Commons fails to agree withdrawal treaty by end of the week
Put simply choice next week will be no deal or long extension (that’s nine months to a year for starters), with one justification for a lengthy Brexit delay to allow MPs to thrash out customs union/Norway Plus
Read 5 tweets

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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Do leader really want an endless series of cliff-edges? Barnier fears long extension takes pressure off - but there are 'decision points' still in a long extenson: EP elections, EP sitting, UK Party Conferences. Some MS saying "do we need to decide now" - no, but then what? 1/
Once UK has agreed to hold EP elections, once it has done so, door is open to longer extension, inertia - and rising likelihood Brexit doesn't happen. It dies a slow death. EU leaders also get to park the issue while UK spends some time shredding itself. /2
Will take real political will to force a hard decision point on UK (revoke v no deal) which as @bopanc says, isn't really there. No appetite for a 'no deal'.

But as last #EUCO showed, forcing decisions on UK is hard. Both leaders risk splitting parties if they move. /3
Read 7 tweets
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Bojan Pancevski
@bopanc
A little thread on the state of #Brexit from #EU perspective: top priority is avoid a no deal. May agreeing to hold European elections is a breakthrough towards a long extension. Her letter was coordinated with EU leaders. If May doesn’t find an arrangement with 1/
Corbyn there would likely be a long extension that won’t be called that. A year-long extension would take the pressure off Westminster so we could end up with successive extensions to keep Brits on their toes. This may become more palatable that the @eucopresident flextension 2/
proposal. It is nearly inevitable that Britain will remain in the Customs Union, as May has long accepted. When this becomes clear in Westminster, and the idea of a post-#Brexit independent trade policy fades away, staying in the Single Market could become an option again. 3/
Read 5 tweets
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Alberto Nardelli
@AlbertoNardelli
NEW: The EU Is Expecting Theresa May To Ask For A Long Brexit Delay buzzfeed.com/albertonardell…
EU officials expect May to ask for a long extension, and will likely emerge with a process for MPs to agree the future UK-EU relationship.
As first reported by @BBCkatyaadler last night, Tusk is inclined to ask EU leaders to grant a "flextension".

Following a meeting yesterday, a senior EU official quotes Tusk as saying: “The only reasonable way out would be a long but flexible extension."
Read 8 tweets
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Holger Hestermeyer
@hhesterm
EU Ambassadors briefing on Art. 50. Let me add one thing for clarity’s sake. While multiple extensions are possible under Art. 50, you can make them practically impossible. How? (Thread)
If the first extension lasts until after the EP elections - into the grey zone between the EP election date and the time the EP starts sitting - the UK will not hold EP elections. I regard this as a breach of EU law, but a breach without remedy, as the EP does not sit before.
The decision on seat allocation allows for two options: elections with UK or without UK. The election would thus be held without the UK. Some of the UK’s seat disappear under that allocation, others are reallocated.
Read 4 tweets
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David M. Herszenhorn
@herszenhorn
Amid reports that #UK PM @theresa_may hopes to renegotiate the "backstop" provision on the Northern Ireland border, let's recall that she already made clear what she wants in her letter to #EU leaders before disastrously losing the #Brexit Withdrawal Treaty ratification vote. 1/
"This could be mitigated by changes to the backstop itself," she wrote to @eucopresident & @JunckerEU "Proposals for a way in which the UK could choose to exit the backstop unilaterally were it ever to come into force, or for a hard time limit... 2/
on the duration of the usage of the backstop, have been raised and discussed in Parliament. We have also raised them previously in negotiations." So there are her proposals, i.e. the EU should basically just cave on backstop in face of House of Commons defeat. But but but ... 3/
Read 17 tweets
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Arsen Ostrovsky
@Ostrov_A
🔴 As we mark #HumanRightsDay, a devastating new @EURightsAgency Report on #Antisemitism in #Europe underscores how alarming situation has become.

You can read full report, most extensive in years, here: bit.ly/2Qovhjh

But thread below on some of these jarring figures:
@EURightsAgency @TimmermansEU @VeraJourova @kschnurbein @EUinIsrael @EGiaufretEU @IsraelinEU ➡️ 90% of Jews feel #Antisemitism has increased over past 5 years.

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@EURightsAgency @TimmermansEU @VeraJourova @kschnurbein @EUinIsrael @EGiaufretEU @IsraelinEU ➡️ 85% of Jews consider #Antisemitism to be the biggest social or political problem in their home country;

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