Thread by @pmdfoster

Do leader really want an endless series of cliff-edges? Barnier fears long extension takes pressure off - but there are 'decision points' still in a long extenson: EP elections, EP sitting, UK Party Conferences. Some MS saying "do we need to decide now" - no, but then what? 1/

https://twitter.com/bopanc/status/1115151304790302721

Once UK has agreed to hold EP elections, once it has done so, door is open to longer extension, inertia - and rising likelihood Brexit doesn't happen. It dies a slow death. EU leaders also get to park the issue while UK spends some time shredding itself. /2

Will take real political will to force a hard decision point on UK (revoke v no deal) which as @bopanc says, isn't really there. No appetite for a 'no deal'.

But as last #EUCO showed, forcing decisions on UK is hard. Both leaders risk splitting parties if they move. /3

@bopanc The fact May is travelling not sitting in Westminster talking to Corbyn seems to indicate that there is little prospect of a deal pre-EUCO that will access the 'middle 400' for MPs who might go for CU pledge alongside Withdrawal Agreement to get it done. /4

@bopanc So without movement, her only argument is the one used by Jeremy Hunt this morning in Strasbourg, which is that 'we're talking, that's a step in itself, a big move, give us some space' - even tho there really isn't much good reason for EU leaders to believe it can deliver. /5

@bopanc The Tusk argument for patience is still a sound one, particularly if you don't have the stomach or unity for putting guns to departing member states' heads.

So maybe, as @bopanc says, it comes down to finding somethign to make Macron look like he's cracking whip. /6

@bopanc That would speak to a return to giving May what she asked for - June 30 - even though that is the same date leaders rejected last time. But at least one MS tells me that's where it might come down. Wedensday night might still be interesting. 7/ENDS