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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Several sources reporting similar. Immediate impact would be to reduce the pressure on next week in the UK. The EU can be good at kicking the can down the road as well, as anyone who ever followed their trade talks will know.
Now this could mean that when MV3 falls next week, the deadline is extended, and indicative votes happen. But quite likely this Gov could choose instead to postpone MV3, not have indicative votes, and wait for following week.
It appears that the PM either can't count, intends to ignore Parliament, or believes her powers of persuasion will win over opponents of no-deal.

theguardian.com/politics/2019/…
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
I've been posting this Brexit options table for a few days now, but without any narrative. As we almost certainly approach indicative votes of some sort or other, what are the key messages MPs should know? 1/
Most obvious, as you move away from membership and associated 'costs' such as payments and freedom of movement, you lose certain access rights like decision making, selling services, frictionless trade, but gain access to your own trade deals. You can't have everything 2/
We also learn that any future relationship is not cut and dried. Most notably no off the shelf model can solve the Irish border problem, and the extent of access to / say in EU goods and services markets after Brexit would need to be negotiated 3/
Read 8 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
There's been lots of talk including from the PM of showing how the next phase of Brexit talks could be conducted differently if her deal passes, to help it do so. Yet no real proposals. How difficult would that have been?
We are left to conclude the PM has no intention of doing anything differently, in which case the suggestion otherwise is actually counter-productive. She thinks her way was perfect, or perhaps doesn't want to admit the deal doesn't provide the certainty she claimed it did?
So we now see the PM practically begging MPs to pass her deal, but only for the certainty of kicking the can into the next phase, having left the EU. Not helped by those saying her deal might be ok without her, which also makes little actual sense.
Read 3 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
My most minority Brexit view. When the EU say the Withdrawal Agreement can't be changed this is shorthand for not changing the Irish backstop without the UK changing red lines. It is not to be taken literally of the entire text.
Of course since the UK subsequently burned all negotiating capital in trying to change the Irish backstop without changing red lines, it is probably literally the case for the moment that the WA will not change. But that is not the same as saying it couldn't happen.
My more familiar lament is that since hardly anyone has read the whole Withdrawal Agreement, still less analysed what it means, we are several months after it was unveiled not particularly the wiser. Which is typical of our lax approach thus far to negotiations.
Read 3 tweets

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