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Adam Payne
@adampayne26
, 4 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
DUP isn’t budging. Some ERG MPs are but not enough. Nor are Labour MPs. MV2.5 will fall tomorrow and so will a May 22 Brexit. The UK will leave the EU on April 12 without a deal unless the Commons swallows a long extension and a big political event - soft Brexit, GE, referendum.
This could be much closer than a lot of us (including me) thought
It's a fast-moving situation but the current consensus among MPs on both sides is that May is heading for a narrow defeat. Labour is nervous but one MP says: "There will be movement on numbers but I don’t see big numbers of Labour MPs." A former Cabinet minister agrees.
A minister writes: “I think it could be 5 or 10 either way.” 😬
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More from @adampayne26 see all

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Adam Payne
@adampayne26
PM to make TV statement shortly. No word yet on what she's going to say.
Theresa May says she'll ask for a further extension of Article 50 which will end once the House of Commons has agreed a deal
Theresa May says she will meet with Jeremy Corbyn to discuss a Brexit plan

She says talks would focus on the Political Declaration
Read 3 tweets
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Adam Payne
@adampayne26
Labour will whip for Common Market 2.0 tonight if selected by Bercow
I reported last month that Common Market 2.0 MPs were v encouraged by how talks with Corbyn had gone and believed that he would soon whip for it. He was enthusiastic in meetings, arriving with the CM 2.0 pamphlet & lots of Qs. Decent chance it passes now.
There’s some chatter that the Lib Dems are considering voting for Common Market 2.0 tonight. “No white smoke yet,” Lib Dem source tells me. They’re definitely thinking about it...
Read 3 tweets
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Adam Payne
@adampayne26
A minister texts to predict that May has lost by around 50
MPs reject the Withdrawal Agreement by votes 344 to 286

Majority: 58
Theresa May: "I fear we are reaching the limits of the process in this House..."

Hello
Read 5 tweets

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Nick Vucic
@npv708
Brexit, but in gifs.

#Brexit
The Leave Campaign prior to the referendum:
The Remain Campaign prior to the referendum:
Read 82 tweets
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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
1) thread
Dear @andrew_lilico
Please, give it up, you, like all #brexit figures, got it catastrophically wrong

I don't want to kick a man when he's down but honestly, surely it's time for some quiet reflection?

Brexiters, like yourself, failed. There is no-one else to blame
@andrew_lilico 2) the strange thing is, you still seem to be suffering from the same delusion that you had 2 years ago when you wrote this Blog, that either
a) the UK has the upper hand in #Brexit negotiations or
b) the UK can act as if it does and the EU will cave
reaction.life/seven-key-brit…
@andrew_lilico 3) so yes, you're technically right, the UK doesn't need a Withdrawal agreement but the UK *does* want a trade deal, every Brexit MP admits that, and the EU made a future trade deal conditional on that WA

So, we're getting a WA

Read 11 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
So thoughts on this idea of a UK "parliamentary lock" on applying the Irish backstop #Brexit /1

The UK parliament can do what it wants, on one level, but if MPs were persuaded to pass the Withdrawal Agreement on this basis, where would that leave the EU side?

Come July 2020, the UK hits its first decision point....it can /2
a) extend transition
b) shift to backstop
c) push onto future deal (which won't be ready)

So UK parliament cd choose not to kick in backstop....

But after two years (DEC 2023).... /3
Read 6 tweets
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Dr Phillip Lee MP
@DrPhillipLeeMP
What a day for #Brexit! All in all, we’re in a more powerful place now to do what’s right for the country.
‘No deal’ is dead: the @EUCourtPress Advocate General‘s opinion is that the UK can unilaterally revoke article 50 under certain circumstances. So we don’t have to leave the EU without a deal unless we’re irrational enough to decide that’s what we want
Parliament will rightly now be able to consider the Government’s legal advice on the ‘Withdrawal Act’ before it has to vote whether or not to accept the Govt’s #Brexit deal next Tuesday
Read 5 tweets
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Penny Midas Rollo
@PennyMidasRollo
001/ [article content in this tweet series 001-180 reproduced with permission from Martin Howe QC of Lawyers for Britain @lawyers4britain]
#quote "Leaving the EU on WTO terms: pulling down the barriers to world trade
Introduction: why prices will FALL after Brexit, not rise" /002
002/ #quote "Over the past couple of weeks, the media have been full of lurid scare stories about what will happen if the UK leaves the EU on WTO terms, because negotiations with the EU do not result in a withdrawal agreement." /003
#tariffs #NoDeal #Brexit #WTO #ProjectFear #shortages #food #medicines
003/ #quote "One of the most ridiculous and UNJUSTIFIED of these absurd scare stories is that it will lead to higher prices, and even shortages, of foods and medicines." /004
Read 180 tweets
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Nicolai von Ondarza
@NvOndarza
There is a growing sentiment in the UK that the EU is trying to force through 'Versailles-like terms' on it in the #Brexit negotiations, as expressed here by @pmdfoster:

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…

It is wrong and dangerous, not only because of the explosive historical analogy:
First, the current offer of the EU27 is not a 'bare bones FTA'.

CETA is the deepest FTA of the EU so far, and a UK-EU DCFTA would be deeper still.

It only now seems to be becoming clear that the single market is indeed much more than a free trade area.
Second, the 'Versailles' feeling feeds directly from the narrative that the UK could leave the EU without significant economic consequences.

It is not disrespectful of the #Brexit referendum to maintain that there is a trade-off between sovereignty and economic integration.
Read 3 tweets

Trending hashtags

#TheresaMay #criminal #shortages #FDA #BrexitCrisis #technology #veterinary #integrated #Brexit #Regulation #FinalSay #SPS #producers #consumers #EC #ProjectProsperity #budget #Tories #excise #customs #Labour #zones #BREXIT #stupid #SingleMarket
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