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Staedtler
@Staedtler
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
What we know is that may's withdrawal agreement will never work. She's tried everything with it, and it just won't get through.

Whatever happens now is not going to be that.
May's deal has failed in every form she's tried.

Parliament or country will never accept no deal. We all know this, and it's not going to happen.

So the only option is that we are going to abandon it. Revoke Article 50.
And looking through the indicative votes from earlier in the week, the most support was for a confirmatory referendum.
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Staedtler
@Staedtler
The Common market 2.0 is the one I don't like because it's just more of the same problem that got us here - a flat refusal to understand Europe.
Part of the Boles plan seems to be to join EFTA and then immediately try and rewrite the rules of EFTA to suit yourself.

This is the reason EFTA won't let you in - you'd unbalance it and start throwing your weight around trying to overturn everything.
Ha ha. Bercow has thrown out amendments A and B.

Good.
Read 3 tweets
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Staedtler
@Staedtler
Aha. We have the amendments. Eight of them.

A (Baron) Unilateral exit from backstop

B (Baron) No deal exit in the absence of a withdrawal agreement

I'm already punting that Bercow refuses both of those because they're daft.
There are six sensible amendments

C: (Clarke) Customes union

D: (Boles) Common market 2.0

E: (Kyle) Confirmatory referendum

F: (Jones) Referendum before allowing no deal exit

G: (Cable) Parliamentary supremacy

H: (Eustice) EFTA / EEA
Of the six amendments, these three C, D and H don't deal with the withdrawal agreement.

G is mere political exhibitionism

So that leaves us E and F as the only plausible options, both of which ask for a confirmatory referendum, and the Kyle amendment with most credibility.
Read 5 tweets
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Staedtler
@Staedtler
Good news!

"Oh God, not you again."

Good News!

The Tories are going to sack Theresa May and abandon Brexit. You'll even get a referendum for the pleasure.
A week on Friday we have to decide if we're doing European elections.

If we are, then we accept a long extension of a year.

If we are not, we leave a week on Friday with nothing. A raw Brexit.
No government is going to accept a raw Brexit with no deal. Never happen. Some would, the backbench incurables, but no government would do that, in spite of all the bravado.
Read 7 tweets

Related threads

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Nick Gutteridge
@nick_gutteridge
All star Brexit cast @epc_eu in Brussels today including Commission deputy chief negotiator Sabine Weyand and former UK ambassador to the EU Ivan Rogers. Will post any good quotes/insights below.
Sabine Weyand: 'There’s no point beating about the bush - the Agreement was defeated with a 2/3 majority in the HoC. That’s a crushing defeat by any standards. It’s quite a challenge to see how you can construct out of the diversity of opposition a positive majority for a deal.'
Weyand: 'We need to have a majority that doesn’t just get Agreement over hurdle of a meaningful vote by a narrow majority but we need to a stable majority to ensure the ratification. That’s quite a big challenge. There’s no negotiation between the UK and EU - that's finished.'
Read 31 tweets
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lala
@BMEuropean
@abcpoppins @WernerT_Man @ObiWokKanobe @spaceangel1964 @Doctore_Root @HeikoMaas @The3Million @InLimboBrexit @Scotkraut @snb19692 @W_A_T_O_N @csibike1 @KathrinLuddecke @Shieldmaid8 @nickynoo007 @katarinabarley @catherinemep @julie4nw @CharlesTannock @anandMenon1 @peoplesvote_hq @julienfouchet1 @BaGet4EU @AuroraBlogspot @ProgressiveEur @guyverhofstadt @ElmarBrok_MEP @gualtierieurope @ph_lamberts @GabiZimmerMEP @danutahuebner @JohnFordBlagger @voiceseurope @AcademyOfRock @VesperUK @eyejosh @nickreeves9876 @emmyzen @hmeyer78 @BMeinl @andrea95115861 @kahrs @Eu27K Oh God, a guy on James O'Brien *actually* crying because he'd genuinely believed the charlatans and saying 'What have I done to my country?'

Whatever happens now, I'd really like us not to gloat. Whatever happens now, these are our family, friends and colleagues. Horrible!
@abcpoppins @WernerT_Man @ObiWokKanobe @spaceangel1964 @Doctore_Root @HeikoMaas @The3Million @InLimboBrexit @Scotkraut @snb19692 @W_A_T_O_N @csibike1 @KathrinLuddecke @Shieldmaid8 @nickynoo007 @katarinabarley @catherinemep @julie4nw @CharlesTannock @anandMenon1 @peoplesvote_hq @julienfouchet1 @BaGet4EU @AuroraBlogspot @ProgressiveEur @guyverhofstadt @ElmarBrok_MEP @gualtierieurope @ph_lamberts @GabiZimmerMEP @danutahuebner @JohnFordBlagger @voiceseurope @AcademyOfRock @VesperUK @eyejosh @nickreeves9876 @emmyzen @hmeyer78 @BMeinl @andrea95115861 @kahrs @Eu27K I want these people held accountable for Bill's tears, for the worries of @The3Million and @BritishInEurope, and ours, for the abuse the EU and those working for them got

Adding @DominicRaab @EstherMcVey1 @duponline and all the other liars, who will continue to lie to the public
@abcpoppins @WernerT_Man @ObiWokKanobe @spaceangel1964 @Doctore_Root @HeikoMaas @The3Million @InLimboBrexit @Scotkraut @snb19692 @W_A_T_O_N @csibike1 @KathrinLuddecke @Shieldmaid8 @nickynoo007 @katarinabarley @catherinemep @julie4nw @CharlesTannock @anandMenon1 @peoplesvote_hq @julienfouchet1 @BaGet4EU @AuroraBlogspot @ProgressiveEur @guyverhofstadt @ElmarBrok_MEP @gualtierieurope @ph_lamberts @GabiZimmerMEP @danutahuebner @JohnFordBlagger @voiceseurope @AcademyOfRock @VesperUK @eyejosh @nickreeves9876 @emmyzen @hmeyer78 @BMeinl @andrea95115861 @kahrs @Eu27K @BritishInEurope @DominicRaab @EstherMcVey1 @duponline I will not engage with those who - at this stage - still believe in No-Deal Brexit any longer. They have every right to believe whatever they want. But we have to reach out to those who are waking up. People like Bill.

lbc.co.uk/radio/presente…
Read 17 tweets
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Brefugees
@Brefugees
If only this was true!

We predicted the citizens' rights debacle and that the UK would end up on bare bones WTO terms before the referendum, so after roleplaying the various scenarios, here's a thread to put on the record what we expect to happen next....
theguardian.com/politics/2018/…
The Parliamentary calculus states that the only way any Brexit deal will pass is if Labour support the motion. Most #Brexperts don't believe they would, be we think they will and we also think it's a Tory trap. Allow us to explain the logic...
Labour's priority is a General Election, and the bare bones deal being offered by EU loosely matches Labour's CU demands, keeps the NI border open and gives May some scope to soften the WA in exchange for Labour votes. But why would Labour support it and not collapse government?
Read 24 tweets
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Roo Bernascone♿🌈
@roo_b_arts
Good evening folks!

It's now 7pm GMT and I'll be offering #tarot readings for the next 6hrs (2am GMT) check link below for details

But like last night while I'm not doing readings I'm going to be doing a Halloween/witchy/tarot thread here so enjoy!

I'd like to begin tonight's thread by showing something that means a great deal to me.

I am a celtic pagan and was raised loosely as such. For my 13th birthday I had a coming of age ritual and was given my first book of Shadows by my mom.

Here is the handwritten inscription image is a handwritten inscription in a book it reads.<br /> <br /> you are the new wave, my love.<br /> walk bravely, my child<br /> but, safely and for the benefit of mother earth.
image is a handwritten inscription in a book it reads.

"you are the new wave, my love.
walk bravely, my child
but, safely and for the benefit of mother earth."

These words fundamentally helped shape who I am and I hope they help someone else too.
Read 78 tweets
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Holger Hestermeyer
@hhesterm
Yesterday I had a revealing exchange with a colleague I revere and I noticed: Brexit is a half-time job. Gove’s statement on simply changing Chequers post-Brexit has confused many. Can you do that? What’s this “political declaration thing”? A thread theguardian.com/politics/2018/…
1) Structure of the Brexit negotiations: The EU and the UK agreed on “sequenced” negotiations. This is from the April 2017 EU guidelines, but I will explain...
2) The sequence basically says that there will be several stages of the negotiation (some nuances were added after the 2017 guidelines):
Step 1: Withdrawal Agreement
Step 2 a: transition
Step 2 b: framework for a future relationship
Step 3: future relationship
Read 22 tweets
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IG: @Africasacountry
@africasacountry
Now that Paul Manafort agreed to cooperate with the US Special Counsel, will we finally get the full story of the damage he did in Africa too? Working for "Leaders" like the late Mobutu, Siad Barre, Sani Abacha, Jonas Savimbi and Teodoro Obiang, the latter who is still around?
On Manafort and Mobutu: Here's the receipts from 1989: washingtonpost.com/archive/lifest…
One side-note: The Manafort lobbyist assigned to work with Obiang, later ended up advising Ellen Sirleaf Johnson in her run to Liberia's presidency and later does PR work for Sirleaf Johnson's govermment in DC huffingtonpost.com/todd-moss/the-…
Read 7 tweets

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