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Brexit twitter is quiet even by Friday afternoon standards, which could be that we all need a break, or that a long extension seems almost inevitable. Well, I'm off on holiday, so it could all be different on return, but I'm expecting...
Best guess a one year extension with potential to finish early, no breakthrough with Labour or in Parliament, and the chance to rethink. For which read surely a new PM and possibly General Election, and probably not much rethinking. But of course we could be surprised...
And how does one track the likelihood of outcomes given possible new PM and elections? With difficulty, but no-deal still a strong possibility even if not quite the high probability some in Brussels think. Perhaps a slight uptick for referendum as well, but mostly as we were 
I might dip my toe into Brexit twitter on occasions in the next two weeks, but if not remember there is no perfect Brexit solution, a Customs Union has to be negotiated, no-deal remains a cul-de-sac, the backstop is not going to be removed... [cont'd]
the withdrawal agreement could be reopened if *both* sides had an interest in doing so, the political declaration is still not binding, and nothing changes the fact that negotiations require cross-party working and therefore a degree of Government openness
Finally, here's what's happened in the past few months of Brexit. Not much to be honest, a game of ever decreasing circles that needs somehow to be broken, not least for our international reputation. But one senses for a while egos will continue to come before unity... /end
