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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
, 7 tweets, 6 min read Read on Twitter
So @LeoVaradkar admits that SPS (phytosanitary) checks would need border, if UK doesn't agree to do them at ports. But suggests that goods/tariffs/customs can be done by tech...but even that isn't as simple as suggested. 1/thread

bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…
@LeoVaradkar Mr Varadkar seemed to be suggesting a 'transit' system of the kind outline by @tconnellyRTE at the weekend....which makes checks 'destination-based'...but this is over-simplifying.../2

rte.ie/news/analysis-…
@LeoVaradkar @tconnellyRTE But as I understand it, the Irish Govt would still need legal derogation from EU to avoid needing to scan the barcode of ‘every’ single goods consignment AT the border, itself.

@SamuelMarcLowe @DavidHenigUK and others may have views on this. /3
@LeoVaradkar @tconnellyRTE @SamuelMarcLowe @DavidHenigUK The Irish would also need EU exemptions so that the majority of small traders who are ‘non registered consignors/consignees’ don't need to export and import goods formally through an ‘office of arrival/departure’ /4
@LeoVaradkar @tconnellyRTE @SamuelMarcLowe @DavidHenigUK And if they don't get this exemption (no signs thus far) they will need build the relevant infrastructure soon enough, even if it's not right on the border. That would be physical symbol, and as PSNI warns, a target. /5
@LeoVaradkar @tconnellyRTE @SamuelMarcLowe @DavidHenigUK And of course this doesn't touch the SPS issue which @JP_Biz outlines here...if the UK doesn't agree to do all SPS checks GB-NI, then what?

Coz politically (as we've seen) that will be backstop 2.0. /6
All of which is to say, that even the 'goods' part of this is not as easy as many would have you believe.

7/ ENDS
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More from @pmdfoster see all

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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Do leader really want an endless series of cliff-edges? Barnier fears long extension takes pressure off - but there are 'decision points' still in a long extenson: EP elections, EP sitting, UK Party Conferences. Some MS saying "do we need to decide now" - no, but then what? 1/
Once UK has agreed to hold EP elections, once it has done so, door is open to longer extension, inertia - and rising likelihood Brexit doesn't happen. It dies a slow death. EU leaders also get to park the issue while UK spends some time shredding itself. /2
Will take real political will to force a hard decision point on UK (revoke v no deal) which as @bopanc says, isn't really there. No appetite for a 'no deal'.

But as last #EUCO showed, forcing decisions on UK is hard. Both leaders risk splitting parties if they move. /3
Read 7 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Lot's of confusion about what happens if UK holds #EP2019 elections and then leaves middle of the year.

Shorter: it doesn't mean re-running elections or holding by-elections.

1/short thread
There are precedents and procedures for filling European Parliament seats in the event that an MEP quits/dies or whatever.

Each country has different ways of dealing with the issue - which was foreseen in the current EP elections legislatino that was passed nationally. /2
The details are here....this gives gives the examples of 9 of the 14 who are getting extra seats (DK, HR, AU, FI, SW, IE, IT, FR, ES). /3

europarl.europa.eu/factsheets/en/…
Read 6 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Lots of Brexiteer jubilation of late that @MichelBarnier saying 'no hard border' in Ireland in a 'no deal' proves that 'MaxFac' works - and that the whole Irish border issue is an EU put-up job to trap UK in a Customs Union.

Here's a thread on why that's not right IMO. 1/Thread
@MichelBarnier This is the kind of Brexiteer stuff I mean...which is superficially understandable because Mr Barnier did say "no hard border".

But let's see what he DID mean... /2

@MichelBarnier I asked a senior EU official. He said “No deal means SPS [animal health/food products] and custom checks. The backstop is actually avoiding a border full stop. No deal is how to avoid *as far as possible* a visible border. No deal will show the beauty of the backstop to all.” /3
Read 22 tweets

Related threads

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Dr Anna Jerzewska
@AnnaJerzewska
Trying to understand Gov’s logic behind NI “solution”. Here goes: we accept that goods form Ir otherwise subject to UK tariffs (~agri) will be shipped via NI tariff free. This is calculated into the system and is a backdoor into UK market for goods where tariffs apply /1
We acknowledge that other EU exporters (continental EU) might wish to trans-ship via I/NI. Some 3rd countries as well (e.g. agri goods already #customs cleared in the EU). But we're hoping this will be limited due to logistics (amount and capacity of transport lanes)? /2
We're removing checks unilaterally to put the EU in the position where when they want to protect the integrity of SM they will need to be the ones applying tariffs and checks to the politically charged NI border /3
Read 5 tweets
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Dr Anna Jerzewska
@AnnaJerzewska
We are not ready for #nodeal. No one is ready. Whatever the outcome of the next two votes, we’re not ready for 29th.

Borders aren’t ready. Traders aren’t ready. Brokers aren’t ready. Gov certainly isn’t ready... longer one /1
Borders. We have TSPs for imports to the UK via roro ports– with traders needing to sign up. Minimum formalities at the border with supplementary declarations later. In practice no one knows how exactly will this work and whether it will actually help to speed things up /2
We have the French #customs system which relies on their IT working as well as traders pre-lodging customs declarations. Not been tested and again, not sure if it will work. Or even at which point VAT and other duties become due (guarantees ? etc). /3
Read 17 tweets
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Dr Anna Jerzewska
@AnnaJerzewska
1/ Another customs thread. This time on #customs formalities and #Backstop . Backstop envisages a #customsunion with simplifications. It mentions that a movement certificate, A.UK, will be required. No mention of customs declarations.
2/ Movement certificate demonstrates that goods are eligible for trade under a customs union. Is certified by e.g. a Chamber of Commerce. Declarations do more than that. They are entered into the national customs system and enable customs authorities to collect customs data.
3/ Much more info on a declaration than on a movement cert. Some of the most important fields include commodity code, value of goods, country of origin and customs procedure. Would imagine the UK would still like to collect this data for various reasons even under backstop.
Read 9 tweets
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Penny Midas Rollo
@PennyMidasRollo
001/ [article content in this tweet series 001-180 reproduced with permission from Martin Howe QC of Lawyers for Britain @lawyers4britain]
#quote "Leaving the EU on WTO terms: pulling down the barriers to world trade
Introduction: why prices will FALL after Brexit, not rise" /002
002/ #quote "Over the past couple of weeks, the media have been full of lurid scare stories about what will happen if the UK leaves the EU on WTO terms, because negotiations with the EU do not result in a withdrawal agreement." /003
#tariffs #NoDeal #Brexit #WTO #ProjectFear #shortages #food #medicines
003/ #quote "One of the most ridiculous and UNJUSTIFIED of these absurd scare stories is that it will lead to higher prices, and even shortages, of foods and medicines." /004
Read 180 tweets
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Mitra Ebadolahi
@MitraEbadolahi
THREAD on new 9th Circuit decision in Rodriguez v. Swartz, our (@ACLUaz @sdACLU + @ACLU) cross-#border shooting case: On Oct. 10, 2012, a U.S. Border Patrol agent on duty in Nogales, AZ fired between 14 & 30 bullets across the #border. aclusandiego.org/wp-content/upl…
Approximately 10 of those bullets hit J.A. Rodriguez, a 16 year old boy peacefully walking down the street on the other side of the #border wall, in Nogales, Mexico.
The 9th Circuit opinion first *affirms* the AZ district court's decision denying Agent Swartz qualified immunity: 📢📢📢"It is inconceivable that any reasonable officer could have thought that he or she could kill J.A. for no reason." Slip Op. at 9.
Read 25 tweets
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Katy Hayward
@hayward_katy
Interesting polling covering GB, NI & IRL. More evidence of layering of Leave/Remain differences upon existing polarisation within NI.
This is why zero-sum (ie land v. sea #border) #brexit narratives (& poss. outcomes) pose direct risks to peace & the Agmt lordashcroftpolls.com/2018/06/brexit…
I can't help but say, tho, that the phrasing of some of the Qs asked is unfortunate, e.g. on possible 'different status' of NI (ref. customs checks in sea ports) or a hard border risking paramilitary attacks.
This serves to *perpetuate* distortions of sensitive & nuanced matters.
+ as for the statement (for respondents to agree/disagree with) on technological solutions --
"Modern technology would allow any customs checks to be done quickly and easily, so a border would not be damaging or disruptive" --
What purpose/value does this have in an opinion poll?
Read 3 tweets

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