,
9 tweets,
2 min read
Read on Twitter
Ok, time for some harsh truths about no-deal Brexit. Not pleasant reading, but we shouldn't shy away from reality. We are very, very close to the point at which it will be *impossible* to revoke Article 50 and remain in the EU *if* Theresa May doesn't actively collaborate.
Why? Chillingly simple: Parliament doesn't have as much power as you may think they do. MPs can't just conjure up new legislation out of thin air, no matter the urgency. First they have to carve out time to debate it, which itself takes time and a big fight.
Then they have to get the bill in question past the HOC and the HOL. As you saw with Yvette Cooper's bill (still going on) that can't be done in less than 2 days - and in her case it's taking longer because the Government successfully filibustered in the HOL.
What that means is that even if MPs and Lords drop absolutely everything and bring sleeping bags and pillows to the HOC/HOL, you really need *3 days* for MPs to impose their will on Theresa May against her own wishes. To force her to revoke A50 on behalf of the UK.
So by the time the EU summit wraps up next week it *will be too late* for Parliament to stop a no-deal Brexit. A vote of no confidence won't do it. New legislation won't do it. Nothing will do it.
As a result, if you're holding out hope that "Parliament will save us", wake up - please. Unless it happens in the next 3-4 days, the calendar will beat any attempt to do so.
Does that mean we will automatically "no deal" on 12 April? No, it does not. But it means we will be entirely beholden to what Theresa May chooses to do very, very soon. Within a very very short space of time, she will be the only person able to stop no-deal from happening.
And once we get down to the final 24H or so, it's possible even Theresa May can't stop Brexit if the Cabinet, ERG, etc. fling blocking procedural tricks at her. We're racing the clock, and it's not going to stop while our Parliament navigates the chaos.
So if you can bear it, reach out to your MP *again*. Let them know just how dangerous and unacceptable no-deal will be. (NOTE: I know there's an Article 50 extension request on the table, but the EU already refused the 30 June date, and Theresa May may refuse a longer one.)
