Thread by @pmdfoster

So @LiamFox has written warning that a Customs Union is 'worst of all worlds' for UK - as revealed in EXC by my colleague @Steven_Swinford

That said, Dr Fox sees to have a fairly selective, or rather political memory... 1/

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/…

@LiamFox @Steven_Swinford He's very downbeat on the prospects for services if you cannot leverage across on goods.

And yet was markedly more perky when talking to a professional audience in January.... /2

ukpol.co.uk/liam-fox-2019-…

@LiamFox @Steven_Swinford In that speech he extols the virtue of a mulitlateral approach and liberalisation in services.

In both documents he says TiSA (Services Agreement) is stalled in Gevena, but in speech he's clear that that is "not our only option". In the letter it sounds like the end of world/3

@LiamFox @Steven_Swinford He then makes the Turkey trap point (that EU negotiates access to Turkey market, but Turkey doesn't get reciprocal access to EU trade partners' markets)...except that EU is clear it would negotiate 'better than Turkey' as @DLidington @Kier_Starmer and others have acknowledged. /4

@LiamFox @Steven_Swinford @DLidington @Kier_Starmer He says that the access to UK markets in such circumstances would be automatic, but as a friendly trade wonk point out to me, that's not quite right - and Dr Fox's deparment would know that. /5

@LiamFox @Steven_Swinford @DLidington @Kier_Starmer IF a 'third country' refuses access to UK, then we can still charge MFN tariff rates - which are higher than the EU's Common External Tariffs, in order to protect our market and incentivise that country to reciprocate. /6

@LiamFox @Steven_Swinford @DLidington @Kier_Starmer One reason we know this, is that the Irish Protocol (backstop) has precisely this fix. Annex 2 (Article 3, point 2) makes clear that the CET is the minimum - but sets that as a floor. /6

@LiamFox @Steven_Swinford @DLidington @Kier_Starmer Going to defer to trade wonks at this point, but seems to me there is a wider point also - being in a CU with the EU might not be ideal (others have argument for single market only) but if we need to avoid free movement, then the choice is made for us. /7

@LiamFox @Steven_Swinford @DLidington @Kier_Starmer Because the reality is that the go-it-alone policy is already showing it's obvious weaknesses.

Just look at Dr Fox's efforts at rolling over existing trade deals. We are running to stand still, and falling behind. /8

@LiamFox @Steven_Swinford @DLidington @Kier_Starmer But it suits Dr Fox's narrow political purposes to ignore all of that - and (conveniently) that May's own deal (per her own people in negotiations with Labour) leads to a customs union in all but name anyway to fix the Irish Border issue...unless we go back to Irish Sea border./9

@LiamFox @Steven_Swinford @DLidington @Kier_Starmer Don't want to make out Customs Union only is 'ideal', but in a world of hard Brexit choices it is a route to a deal, to an exit. If that ship hasn't already sailed under the noses of the very people who said they wanted it most. /10 ENDS