ITALY MACRO - GOVERNMENT 2020 BUDGETARY PLAN OUT: COWS DONT FLY 3d
The Government has issued a press release anticipating the main targets of the Budgetary plan 2020 (DEF) to be published today.

mef.gov.it/ufficio-stampa…
After many announcements of the various ministers and PM and Vice PM, the Government discovered that “cows don’t fly”

GDP growth is now expected at 0.2% after policy measures in 2019 and 0.8% in 2020 (vs previous 1% and 1.1%)
Deficit is now expected at 2.4% in 2019 and 2.1% in 2020 (2% and 1.8% previously)
Debt is now expected at 132.6% of Gdp in 2019 and 131.3% in 2020 (vs previous 130.7% and 129.2%)
Apparently all targets include some 1% of GDP in proceeds from privatizations in 2019-2021
Not clear if the 2020 estimates include a hike in VAT

MORE COMMENTS WHEN THE DEF 2020 IS PUBLISHED

OUR ESTIMATES LOOK FOR 2019 GDP of -0.6% AND 2020 GDP of -0.7%
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