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Let's work through some consequences of a long Art.50 extension:
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First up, it's essential to remember that extensions eat into any transition period, i.e. the 31/12/2020 normal end-date mentioned in the WA isn't moving in line with Brexit day
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Most immediately, that means the extension to 31/12/2022 will almost certainly have to be used, given that even with the original Brexit date of 29/3/2019 there was scant time to negotiate a future EU-UK relationship
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To develop that point, this also means more chance that the backstop provisions will be used, given the substantial risk of being unable to conclude negotiations in time
(insert your own ironic comment here)
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(insert your own ironic comment here)
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But a long extension will also have other effects
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While EU27 say they'll not start future relationship negotiations prior to new Brexit date, there will be increasing pressure to begin internal discussions thereon
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In part, that's because of EU's desire not to get stuck in backstop either, but more it'll be through the hanging around for a UK that might seem to be finally heading toward WA ratification.
Assorted elections through this year (inc. #EP2019) will also be prompts for this
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Assorted elections through this year (inc. #EP2019) will also be prompts for this
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That EU27 debate will also be fuelled by differences of opinion among MS: depending on how tonight's EUCO goes, some quid pro quos might emerge about future paths
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A third effect of a long extension will be EU having to accept UK's presence in key decisions
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I wrote about sincere cooperation yesterday: key point was that EU can't really limit UK's actions as a MS
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Put differently, UK is still a problem even if it does hold #EP2019 elections, be that in EP group formation, or elections of officers and COM
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On the finances side, there's the 2020 budget to conclude this autumn, followed by the 2021-7 financial framework, which should really get done next spring (which might prove to be a big driver for an Art.50 extension cut-off on 31/12/2019)
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Finally, a long extension allows EU27 focus to drift away from Brexit until UK makes a decision.
That's helpful for an EU with other things to deal with, but it might also reduce pressure on UK to make that decision
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That's helpful for an EU with other things to deal with, but it might also reduce pressure on UK to make that decision
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If EU isn't jollying things along, will UK do that itself? Does EU need to do something to incentivise movement?
All Qs for tonight
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All Qs for tonight
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In sum: long extension works for many reasons, but it also comes with a pile of issues, not all of which seem to have been thought through
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