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The weight of the Decisions much more on the safeguarding of the EU's functioning than on the extension to 31 Oct:
- failure to hold #EP2019 elections means exit on 31 May;
- firm words on sincere cooperation;
- no renegotiation of WA or start of future relationship talks
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- failure to hold #EP2019 elections means exit on 31 May;
- firm words on sincere cooperation;
- no renegotiation of WA or start of future relationship talks
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Worth also noting the June review of this: EU27 trying to avoid more last-minute late nights (although on the evidence they actually quite like them)
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But most striking is the complete absence of wording in Decision (or Conclusions or Tusk's statement) on the UK's need to have a plan for unlocking this.
That's a big shift from the previous EUCO
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That's a big shift from the previous EUCO
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That suggests either that Eu27 got distracted by safeguarding language (unlikely) or they have given up trying to pin UK down on this (more likely)
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An optimist might see this as a removal of one key barrier to further extensions
A pessimistic might say it's part of the EU27 giving up hope on UK and heading towards much toughness in autumn
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A pessimistic might say it's part of the EU27 giving up hope on UK and heading towards much toughness in autumn
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A final note, on the length of extension. End Oct (assuming it's used) takes UK through EP group formation, most of COM election process, but still allows EU to adopt 2020 budget post-exit.
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It's clearly a compromise to French, since year-end was the balance of opinion beforehand.
Big Q is whether 6.5 months is enough for UK to change its situation
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Big Q is whether 6.5 months is enough for UK to change its situation
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Certainly, it's long enough for a leadership challenge (via a motion of no-confidence), a General Election, or even (just) a referendum, but any of those things need to be got rolling relatively soon
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Today we'll see if there's an enlightenment on that front, but I'd not be surprised if Westminster took this as sign that some rest is needed and the next fortnight turned out to be a 'normal' Easter break
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Gvt has to decide whether to call time on talks with Labour and then when to return to Commons for more indicative votes
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To note on this, May's statement last night didn't suggest any cunning plan on this front (unsurprisingly)
gov.uk/government/spe…
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gov.uk/government/spe…
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In sum, the EUCO decision gets everyone out of a hole, but without any clarity on how to avoid falling back into it later this year (or much sooner, if UK messes about on #EP2019)
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