Thread by @jpags

Today is the big transit announcement from the province. I will tweet some stuff about Scarborough. Please follow @BenSpurr @robferguson1 at the announcement as well as @dmrider @robertbenzie. @thekeenanwire will have some informed takes at some point as well

Off the top, the Sun is reporting via government sources that the city's relief line is estimated at $13B, but it was last estimated at $7B, so if, in fact, the province's plan costs $10.9B it would actually be $3.9B more expensive not $2.1B less expensive? What am I missing?

It's important to get this straight, because if Ford wants to claim he is saving money with his relief line plan, it appears that isn't correct. Will wait for more details from the announcement

@thekeenanwire @SwanBoatSteve I think the main issue is the framing that this is cheaper that what is being put forward by the city.

Sun: "The Ford government has been promising that they can build subways in Toronto faster and cheaper than the city can"

I just had so many flashbacks (Photo by Keith Beaty)

Here is Ford's plan, via @BenSpurr: thestar.com/news/gta/2019/…

This plan would see the Scarborough subway return to original three-stop concept - 7.6km from existing Kennedy station to Sheppard Ave. with stops at Lawrence, Scarborough Town Centre & Sheppard. This is plan Rob Ford championed. Here's comparison of one and three stop versions:

The three-stop version was last estimated by the city at $4.6 billion based on less than 5 per cent design work - *very* preliminary. That type of estimate could be off by as much as -30% to +50%, so actually as high as $6.9B. Province has estimated $5.5B

Ford: “This is close to my heart and this one is very close to my brother Rob and both of us have been the champions of transit in Scarborough right from our time at city hall...This one is for you Rob."

"“I can see a big smile on his face.”

Those at city hall have been talking about Ford carrying out his and his brother's unfinished wish list for the city. That was maybe the most overt confirmation.

Ford says red tape at city hall has prevented transit projects. A seven-stop LRT for Scarborough that was to be fully funded under Wynne's government and moving toward construction was cancelled by the Fords and their allies on council

Now that council is moving ahead with a one-stop plan that staff say could be done as early as Q4 2026, Ford is shifting plans again that will very likely delay construction

"They have delayed the Scarborough subway over 11 times," Ford said. That is not true. Staff have been proceeding with one-stop plan since July 2016 and council has approved each next step that staff have presented them, despite unsuccessful protests from pro-LRT councillors.

Ford says he spoke with city officials "hundreds of hours" about this transit plan when asked about why Tory is not at this press conference. It is difficult to fact check this, but that is a lot of hours.

"We're going to do everything we can to meet our targets," Ford says when @BenSpurr asks if he'll commit to the subway being built before the Scarborough RT is thought to be kaput (about 2026). Current Ford estimate is "before 2030," so that sounds like many years of buses

Just want to make this clear: Premier Ford is saying that Scarborough residents could be on the bus for *years* in not committing to subway being done by believed SRT shutdown

The three stop subway was approved by council in 2013 when they cancelled a fully-funded seven-stop LRT that would have served more people and been built sooner. It was scheduled to open this year at a cost of approximately $2B.

Both the city and the province's subway alternative don't leave any funding for the promised Eglinton East LRT, extending Crosstown to UTSC. That line costs an estimated $1.6B and could be built in four years, city staff say based on preliminary design

Combined, that's at least $3.6B for an LRT network built sooner, serving far more people. There would be additional unknown costs at Kennedy station to connect the seven-stop LRT, but an LRT plan is still far cheaper than province's estimated $5.5-billion, three-stop subway

It's worth noting here that council has never seen a value-for-money comparison of subway vs. LRT to replace the aging Scarborough RT. But a Metrolinx analysis never released said a three-stops subway was "not a worthwhile use of money" compared to an LRT: thestar.com/news/city_hall…

Here's my early story on what Ford's transit plan announced with more details this morning means for Scarborough: thestar.com/news/city_hall…

Tory, speaking to reporters now on the province’s transit plan, is flanked by his relief line advocate @BradMBradford, TTC chair @JayeRobinson, executive members @VoteDenzil @Thompson_37 @anabailaoTO, and @McKelvieWard25

Follow @dmrider who is with the mayor.

So far, Tory is framing the province's announcement as good news for Toronto. Says the city has to work with the province so we actually know what they're up to. For weeks they have been very, very unclear about all of this and only briefed Tory's team at the last minute

Tory's comments also suggest Toronto doesn't really have a choice but to go along with the province's plans quietly.

There are so many unknowns about the "Ontario Line" still, replacing the city's relief line plans, but Tory says he is "cautiously optimistic" about it

Updated Scarborough transit story: "Not only would, for at least $1B less, a 24-LRT station network be built to connect more people, provide more service for far fewer dollars, but it could be built much faster than a 3-stop subway,” says @JoshMatlow thestar.com/news/city_hall…