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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Falcon Heavy’s center core and two side boosters land upright today. Amazing innovations. A different question: is the benefit of these innovations producer surplus or all consumer surplus? Does innovation make GDP go up or mostly down? Is there pricing power? How big is the TAM?
You can see what innovations in launch systems (e.g., re-use) have done to rocket launch prices in the chart. Prices are *way* down. You can fit a lot of 400 kilogram satellites on the Falcons. The 64,000 kilogram question is: what is the elasticity of demand for rocket launch?
What the Falcon Heavy launch today proves is that people who claim innovation is slowing are out of the damn minds if you look at what is happening at a microeconomics level. A rocket and two side boosters landed standing up and can be reused. Magical! cnbc.com/2019/04/11/liv…
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
Ubben is describing why Buffett is has so much cash at BRK. Companies that Berkshire would normally buy are trading like high quality bonds given low interest rates and prices are bid up to a point where it's hard as a value investor to buy at a margin of safety given intrinsic.
The scarce resource is no longer capital as it was "when interest rates were 15%." The "returns accrue to those that allocate well against the scarce asset." Quiz: What's scarce today? What businesses have been doing well in this changed environment? What do they have in common?
The converse question: What businesses have been doing poorly in an age in which capital is no longer scarce? Companies that when attacked by mini-mills keep cutting and retreating to maintain Siren Call Ratios instead of investing to create new pricing power and free cash flow?
Read 4 tweets
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
JEFF UBBEN: "The long bond at 2% for this long has created a market that seems to be difficult for value investors. There’s always a worry about the next cycle and high-quality businesses can kind of revalue higher and higher because they’re treated as bond substitutes."
When Jeff Ubben says "value investing" he means buying shares in high quality businesses at a discount to intrinsic value in the style of Charlie Munger NOT "value" as a statistical factor as applied in an index fund. The two styles share the word "value" but are very different.
When someone says "value investing" the first question to ask is: are you talking about (1) value as an analytical style in valuing a partial stake in an individual business or (2) value as a statistical factor as applied in an index fund. They aren't remotely the same.
Read 3 tweets
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Tren Griffin
@trengriffin
JEFF UBBEN: "I don’t know how much of the bid every day is really somebody buying intrinsic value on the other side. It feels like computers to computers. December was kind of just the race to the bottom." Value as analytical style not a statistical factor google.com/amp/s/www.valu…
"There’s this huge volatility around quarterly earnings that didn’t need to exist. It seems like somebody wants to beat somebody else to the punch on headline earnings and stuff like that which rewires the brain of directors and they think quarterly earnings is really important."
JEFF UBBEN: "In the end intrinsic value will win. And because we have the long-term capital, we have the time horizon that will allow our thesis to play out. And we really tend to make money in year three, four and five. Not year one and two."
Read 3 tweets

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Values, believing, independent thinking, teamwork
@Bruno_Brunelli
Less than 5 minutes until #Falcon Heavy's scheduled launch at 6:35PM ET. Watch live:

#SpaceX is targeting Thursday, April 11 for a #FalconHeavy launch of the #Arabsat6A satellite from Launch Complex 39A (LC-39A) at #NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida.

WATCH LIVE:

The primary launch window opens at 6:35 p.m. EDT, or 22:35 UTC, and closes at 8:31 p.m. EDT, or 00:31 UTC on Friday, April 12. The satellite will be deployed approximately 34 minutes after liftoff.

WATCH LIVE:

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Laina SnowTime
@lainasparetime
Today's Anne chapter has a surprising amount of notes for a chapter where not a ton happens #LainaReadsAnne
#LainaReadsAnne It's now the next day, and Marilla still hasn't told Anne she's staying. She's not really sure why. Maybe she's nervous, even.

She has been having Anne do chores all morning though - not to the extant of the other people she lived with. Just normal chores.
#LainaReadsAnne Like, Anne's 11 and she's just moved to a farm. A certain amount of work was expected of children that age back then, and really should be of most kids now, and she's not raising peoples' children or anything.
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CCC
@theCCCuk
*New thread* Today we've published two new reports on UK #land use & #biomass setting out why they're important in tackling climate change & how our land can help to build resilience to climate impacts. Here's a summary of both: theccc.org.uk/wp-content/upl… and theccc.org.uk/wp-content/upl…
Kicking off with land use: Our report says fundamental reform to how land is used and managed is needed to deliver the UK’s climate goals. There is now a unique opportunity to define a better land strategy that can tackle the challenges of #climatechange. Read the Exec Summary.
Significant changes in land use could help reduce emissions by 35-80% by 2050. Figure 2.5 explains. Deeper cuts in emissions by 2050 require ↑↑ tree planting & peatland restoration, while the harvesting of biomass could help to displace emissions in energy & construction.
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🏳️‍🌈⚧ Get in loser, we're going to the void
@DarkSunMorrigan
Two men talked with each other over drinks.

"You 'ere what 'appened to Suthwick?" Asked the balding one.

His compatriot, a stout man with the hands of a metal worker raised an eye brow.

"No, I haven't, but I'm sure you're gonna tell me."
The other man started to gesticulate as he spoke.

"Right you are! Soz the rumour from the local traders if that them Esarans are marching again."

The stout man leaned in.

"No... you don't mean THOSE Esarans, right Bart?"

"Yea, I'm serious, Stefan."
The color drained out of Stefan.

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The bar boy stopped listening after refilling the pair's ale. He shook his head, messing up his shaggy brown hair.
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RAICES
@RAICESTEXAS
#Today's story to #EndFamilySeparation Four months ago, Dad and 4-month-old entered at the Texas/Mexico border and requested #asylum. Dad and child were immediately separated and the baby put in ORR custody. #FamiliesBelongTogether
Dad was detained in a #Texas detention center where @RAICESTEXAS consulted. Dad accepted a deportation to be quickly reunited w/ his infant child. However, the Dad was deported & NOT his child. The now 8-month-old baby has been in ORR custody for 4 months. #EndFamilySeparation
The Mom and Dad now have once weekly Skype calls with their 8-month-old baby. That's right, folks. They Skype with an infant. #EndFamilySeparation #FamiliesBelongTogether
Read 7 tweets
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Terri Nelson
@TerriDrawsStuff
Today's bird was really hard to find pictures of, especially ones that are in the public domain. But today I wanted to talk about the Opal Crowned Manakin and here's a painting that doesn't do it justice, and a photo by Ze Carmago on birdseyephoto.com:
There are three kinds of Crowned Manakins found in the Amazonian rainforests. There's the Opal, with that bluish crown, the Snowcap, with the white crown, and the Golden, with the yellow (duh). Photos of specimens by Jason Weir
That pretty bluish crown is stunning on the actual bird. It's, again, like other irridescent birds I've talked about, not actually a color. It's a crystalline structure within the feather barbs that is almost exactly like the way an opal is set up. It's got a jeweled head.
Read 11 tweets

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