Thread by @ShellenbergerMD

Democrats including @BernieSanders call Republicans climate "deniers" & demand radical action — even as they try to kill zero-emissions nuclear

If Republicans simply defend nuclear, they can own the libs — and win swing voters in key states

My latest!

forbes.com/sites/michaels…

@BernieSanders 1. Do Republicans realize how vulnerable Democrats have made themselves on climate change?

Out of one side of their mouths Dems say we have just 12 years until climate doomsday. Out of the other side they call for shutting down nuclear plants, our largest source of clean energy.

2. In February, when she introduced her Green New Deal, Rep. @AOC called for a “transition off” nuclear, America’s largest source of clean energy.

Last Monday, at a televised Fox News Townhall meeting, Sen. @BernieSanders reiterated his call for the closure of nuclear plants.

3. Now, Democratic lawmakers in Pennsylvania and Ohio are fighting legislation that would save both states’ nuclear plants, and would spike carbon emissions.

4. If Democrats get their way, nuclear plants, which constitute 90% of the clean (zero-emissions) electricity in those states, will be replaced by coal and natural gas, and emissions will rise.

5. Republicans have been presented with a major opportunity to attack Dems on their main strengths with suburban swing voters: climate and the environment

How can they claim climate change will destroy the world in 12 years while seeking to replace nuclear with fossil fuels?

6. The answer is: “Because Republicans are letting them.”

There is no good reason for this

Some Republican strategists view talking about the environment as “playing in the other guy’s sandbox.” Republicans are about jobs and the economy while Democrats are about spotted owls.

7. But this Reagan-era logic doesn’t apply to nuclear. Just look at France. It spends a little more than half as much as Germany does for electricity that produces one-tenth the carbon emissions.

8. The difference is that France gets 75% of its power by splitting atoms, Germany is phasing nuclear out for superstitious reasons.

9. Republicans, including President Donald Trump, have long supported nuclear for reasons that have nothing to do with the environment. Mostly this is because the Republican party simply remained pro-nuclear after Democrats turned against the technology in the 1960s.

10. Beyond denying Democrats one of the main issues for mobilizing their base, nuclear-for-the-climate might help Republicans win over moderate swing voters especially Millennials who care about the climate but think Democrats are too ideological in their opposition to nuclear.

11. Those voters could determine the 2020 presidential election. Many live in the suburbs places like Cleveland and Philadelphia. Ohio and Pennsylvania are key presidential battleground states.

12. If Republicans act on what they already believe they can, at a minimum, deny Democrats one of their strengths and, more ambitiously, could steal the environment and climate change from Democrats.

13. Democratic strategists know nuclear is a problem for them. The Bernie Sanders campaign has refused to answer my questions on how he can support closing nuclear plants if climate is a 12 year emergency.

14. Democratic presidential candidates including Cory Booker and Jay Inslee support nuclear but have been mum about it for fear of alienating dogmatic anti-nuclear Democratic primary voters.

15. Democrats are thus caught in a trap whereas Republicans are free to defend nuclear and bash Democrats on climate, two things that the Republican base loves.

16. But for such a strategy to work, Republicans and conservatives will need to more aggressively support efforts by Republican lawmakers in Pennsylvania and Ohio — two critical swing states in the presidential elections.

17. In Pennsylvania, Sen. Ryan Aument (R-Lancaster) and Rep. Thomas Mehaffie (R-Dauphin), are sponsoring legislation that would prevent the state’s nuclear plants from closing.

@SenatorAument

@SenatorAument 18. In Ohio, Rep. Jamie Callender (R-Concord Twp) and Rep. Shane Wilkin (R-Hillsboro) have introduced legislation that would save ratepayers money by replacing a $4.39 per month renewable energy fee paid by ratepayers with a $2.50 per month fee for nuclear.

@SenatorAument 19. The Ohio approach in particular makes the most sense since it cuts subsidies for renewables while extending a far more modest subsidy to nuclear.

@SenatorAument 20. Many Republicans are climate skeptics or “lukewarmers” who believe humans are warming the planet but that environmentalists have exaggerated the likely impacts.

@SenatorAument 21. But skepticism and lukewarmism has never been an obstacle to supporting reasonable help for nuclear plants disadvantaged by decades of far more generous subsidies for renewables and fossil fuels.

@SenatorAument 22. Nuclear plants need support not just for climate but also to maintain low electricity prices and prevent old-fashioned air pollution.

And a growing number of Republicans are voicing support for nuclear on climate grounds.

@SenatorAument 23. “If we are worried about carbon emissions, as we should be,” Ohio’s Republican @GovMikeDeWine said recently, “you cannot get any type of attainment without using nuclear energy. You take away nuclear energy in Ohio, we’re never going to reach any ability to have clean air.”

@SenatorAument @GovMikeDeWine 24. Other Republicans, like Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Chairman Neil Chatterjee, have even sounded alarmist. “I believe climate change is real. I believe man has an impact, and I believe that we need to take steps to mitigate emissions urgently.”

@SenatorAument @GovMikeDeWine 25. Other Republicans, including Secretary of Energy Rick Perry, Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-ND), and Rep. Darin LaHood (R-IL), have called for action to preserve nuclear plants by leveling the playing field with over-subsidized renewables.

@SenatorAument @GovMikeDeWine 26. Now’s the time for Gov. DeWine and other Republican leaders to start whipping up support from within their party for the legislation — and hammering away at Democrats for dragging their feet.

@SenatorAument @GovMikeDeWine 27. Pennsylvania’s Democratic Governor Tom Wolfe has made strong climate commitments, and indicated to bill supporters that he was open to signing legislation, but has done nothing to advocate for it.

@SenatorAument @GovMikeDeWine 28. Most Democratic lawmakers in the two states are deferring to @EnvDefenseFund & @nrdc which accepts and invests, respectively, tens of millions of dollars from oil, gas and renewable energy firms and investors.

forbes.com/sites/michaels…

@SenatorAument @GovMikeDeWine @EnvDefenseFund @NRDC 29. Pro-nuclear Republicans win on the facts. While nuclear fully substitutes for fossil fuels, solar and wind lock them in, resulting in higher emissions than if we just relied on nuclear.

forbes.com/sites/michaels…

@SenatorAument @GovMikeDeWine @EnvDefenseFund @NRDC 30. And renewables have received enough. They receive 94 times more than nuclear in federal subsidies.

The modest subsidies lawmakers in Illinois and New York gave to nuclear plants in 2016 were half the size of the ones given to renewables.

@SenatorAument @GovMikeDeWine @EnvDefenseFund @NRDC 31. Keeping nuclear plants going is good policy. It will prevent electricity rates from skyrocketing in the future

Natural gas is already replacing coal in OH & PA. If the nuclear plants close, too, the oil and gas industry will have extraordinary market power to jack up prices.

@SenatorAument @GovMikeDeWine @EnvDefenseFund @NRDC 32. Fairness is at stake. Coal is exempted from sales tax in Pennsylvania, and the state’s Manufacturers Exemption forbids the imposition of a tax on machines and equipment used in oil and gas drilling.

@SenatorAument @GovMikeDeWine @EnvDefenseFund @NRDC 33. But what’s important here is the politics. Republican advocacy of nuclear for the climate will help them win over a younger and more liberal demographic that is alienated by the extremism of people like Sanders and AOC.

34. Millennial swing voters grew up in fear of the climate, not the Bomb. They don't have their parents’ weird psychological hang-ups.

Republicans can steal climate & environment from Democrats. All they have to do is defend America’s largest source of clean energy.

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