, 21 tweets, 4 min read Read on Twitter
If this poll is accurate, it captures one dimension of Bernie-mania that has nagged me (as someone who appreciates the work Bernie has done over the years). While the majority of Bernie fans are progressives, a decent chunk are more anti-establishment than they are progressive.
I mean seriously, if you'd vote for Trump over Warren then you are not a progressive. A combination of misogyny and idiotic, knee-jerk anti-establishmentarianism probably explains this 26%.
And compare how Bernie voters feel about voting for Mayor Pete vs. how Pete's voters feel about voting for Bernie. My guess is that the supporters of most other Dems would say the same thing, almost all would vote for Bernie if he's the nominee. Why not the reverse?
Finally, this stat suggests that a good chunk of Bernie's support is coming from folks who do not have a long history of being involved in formal, progressive politics.
It's good to be attracting support from such folks who aren't diehard Democrats. My fear, though, is what happens when it comes time to make compromises to do the tough work of democratic, coalitional governance? Will such folks have a stomach for that?
The takeaway here is that we shouldn't associate "Bernie supporters" with "progressives" and supporters of other candidates as "centrists" or even "more moderate." 1/4 of Bernie supporters would vote for Trump over Warren. That's many things, but "progressive" ain't one of 'em.
Woke up to a bunch of interesting replies to this thread from which I learned a lot. Some takeaways. a) I started the thread with "if this poll is accurate" because the sample size is small, so we should take it all with a grain of salt.
That said, the finding about Bernie voters choosing Trump over Warren is more statistically significant than the finding about Klobuchar or Harris voters going for Trump, because the n for K or H was <5, while the n for Bernie was >100.
The Forbes analysis may be cherry-picked (what analysis of a poll isn't?), but it does not seem to contradict the (admittedly, extremely limited) data in the poll.
And finally, this story resonated with me (and I retweeted it) because it squares with conversations I've had with a range of Bernie supporters, esp (but not only) younger ones.
For some reason, a portion of Bernie fans I've interacted with would prefer to talk about how awful the DNC is, than how bad the GOP is. I'm no fan of Donna Brazile or Debby WS, but if someone thinks *they* are the *real* problem in American politics then...well...I disagree.
Progressives win in the US by a) forcefully making the case for their policies (something Bernie does with great skill) and b) building coalitions in the House & Senate that can get legislation passed. The latter requires compromise, wch requires tolerating political differences.
Every single non-Bernie supporting Democrat I've engaged with has said they'd 100% vote for Bernie if he's the nominee. Much less than 100% of the Bernie-supporters I've engaged with said they'd vote D regardless. Anecdotal, I'll admit, but squares w/ the poll's findings.
I'm not telling anyone what to do. If you love Bernie and will absolutely not vote for Biden or Harris, more power to you. I'm not sure I understand the theory of progressive change that would animate such a decision, but maybe it's accurate? No one has a crystal ball.
IMO, passing progressive legislation that will positively impact people's lives is a marathon not a sprint. It requires majorities in the Senate and the House, which means electing Democrats in central PA, the Bronx, Tampa, Orange County, Ohio, Wisconsin, NC, and Georgia.
The GOP speaks for a minority of Americans, but the 30-40% of voters that are with them are incredibly locked in, motivated, and unified. Their policy priorities around immigration, sexuality, climate change, economics, etc. should alarm all progressives.
There are 99 correct ways to counter the damaging policies of the GOP, not one. No one knows for sure which of those 99 ways is the best and which is the worst.
A successful progressive politics in America will require inspiring orators and pragmatic dealmakers. It'll require detailed policy wonkery, and slick PR. It'll require tough talk about how significant our challenges are, and optimistic appeals to our corniest aspirations.
I believe there is an emerging progressive majority in the US struggling to come into being. It faces massive structural hurdles in the form of the Senate, the Sup Crt & the EC. Other obstacles are purity politics & the cults of political personality that accompany them.
No one politician is going to deliver a more progressive America. Obama didn't do it, RFK wouldn't have done it, Bernie can't do it and neither can Beto. Successful democratic politics in a diverse nation of 325 million ppl requires qualities like forbearance and solidarity.
We need leaders who can build the sorts of diverse coalitions that can move the needle on health care, climate, and economic fairness. No leader can deliver those gains on their own...and the more any leader encourages their supporters to think that, the less I trust them.
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