Thread by @FulanNasrullah

2009-2019, ten years. That's how long the war in Northeast Nigeria and the Lake Chad region has raged. In that time I have been involved in various capacities on various sides in how this war has evolved. Today my involvement is solely to study it, and aid civilians 1/

In that ten years a lot has changed, a lot has remained the same. My first takeaway is, ISWAP/Boko Haram etc are ONLY as strong as Nigeria allows them to be. Today tje war is at a stalemate, neither side is able to force a victory. Statements of bravado aside 2/

In that ten years insurgent groups have overrun nearly the whole of three states, and have in strength overrun two state capitals (Damaturu and Gombe), and multiple other cities and towns. 3/

In that ten years the insurgents have been pushed back to hold only isolated swathes of terrain, and have come back to control large areas of rural Northern Borno and Northern Yobe. In that ten years over 100,000 people have died from war, and millions displaced 4/

From my involvement in various capacities on various sides, i do know and understand a lot more than the average Joe about how this war is progressing and has progressed, day after day, year after year. 5/

And my second take away is: This war has been 10years of the Nigerian Government, intelligence services, and Armed Forces largely LEARNING LITTLE, KNOWING NOTHING, AND DOING THE SAME THING over and over again and expecting a different result. 6/

This is not to shit on individual soldiers, DIA/SSS/ONSA/NIA operatives and airmen, who in their personal capacities do a great lot of good. Rather it is to indict the system that has failed, and continues failing, in institutionally improving even the slightest bit 7/

I will begin with the basics of modern warfare. Training, logistics, medical, communications, intelligence.
Anyone who knows anything and is being sincere, knows that failures to improve in these areas is causing more avoidable deaths than Boko Haram or ISWAP are causing. 8/

Not an infantry person, my mode of service was way different as those who know, know.But 10yrs and soldiers in the outposts in contested territory CANNOT still properly prepare perimetre defences?? Improperly prepared defences kill soldiers that otherwise wouldn't have died 9/

Preparing proper fixed perimetre defences is not rocket science. Training soldiers to be able to do some form of initial battlefield first aid isn't either.But this training is not institutionalised and soldiers die, when they bleed out, or ISWAP overruns their trenches 10/

Logistics.First aid kits, are a scarce commodity.10yrs and food delivery is still not sorted out.Vehicle maintenance is still an issue. Weather complaint clothing is still a problem.Soldiers getting their benefits on time is still a problem Ammo availability is still an issue 11/

10yrs and we still have situations where 7.62mm ammo stock levels in the Northeast are terribly low and the Army has to do emergency purchases/airlifts from Belarus. The Nigerian soldier is brave, will do his job once told to,but the system fails him everyday for ten years 12/

10yrs and basic medevac is a problem. Soldiers I know bled out and died on the battlefield because there was no fucking medevac to get them to a hospital. 10yrs and we still throw bodies of dead on the floor in the mortuary at UMTH. 13/

10yrs and we still don't have a trauma support centre to handle soldiers post surgery recoveryi n the Northeast. Still don't have any form of psychological support for soldiers who have seen hell in combat in the Northeast. We are not Niger or Chad for crying out loud! 14/

There was a battalion CO at Kumshe. Those who know, know him. When he was deployed in theatre he was cheerful. 3yrs+ of holding the line against Boko Haram drained him of his soul. 15/

When he left for a course in Pakistan, he was a broken shell. Yet no psycho support for him or his men. When the first 21 Chibok girls were released, this CO singlehandedly saved the handover from turning into a bloodbath, when Abuja bungled comms with units in the bush 16/

Communications. 10yrs and units out in the bush are still lacking proper radios spread in a manner that actually helps in tactical coordination. 17/

10yrs and intelligence collection /dissemination is still a mess. 10yrs of this war,yet SSS won't talk to DMI and DIA and NIA are still beefing over silly things.10yrs and special forces raids are largely still movement-to-contact affairs because the SOF guys have no intel 18/

10yrs and the intelligence services continue to write reports that are largely summations of openly available rumours, or bits of stuff people like myself and @A_Salkida write or say in conversation. 10yrs and the hundreds of islands in the Lake are still unmapped and unknown 19/

10yrs, and 3yrs since New ISWAP was formed, and the intelligence services cannot with any confidence based on knowledge and certainty say how ISWAP is organised or who runs what within ISWAP. Nor can they with certainty say what the health state of Shekau is 20/

10yrs and the intelligence situation is so terrible that soldiers are fighting ISWAP/Boko Haram units and know nothing about which unit they are engaging , what resources are available to that unit, and what the order of battle for that unit is. 21/

10yrs and we kill/capture relatively important people and we don't know. We still don't know which island on the Lake is ISWAP's headquarters. Nor do we know with certainty who is the Wali of ISWAP. 22/

Close air support, mobile fire support, aerial reconnaissance is still a hot mess. This is not to shit on the Chief of Air Staff @CAS_AMSadique, who has been hands down the best service chief in the past 20yrs, bar none. But it is to shit on the process which is just shit /23

Fast attack jets delegated to CAS missions and ill suited to the task, still have to fly from Maiduguri. Attack helicopters which are better suited, also have to fly from Maiduguri to support troops in the Lake area. oftentimes arriving too late to make any difference 24/

Anyways I have been asked by someone i respect to stop this thread. So i will end here.

However, 10years of this war and Nigeria has still not sorted out or improved or in anyway reorganised our way of war to actually win or degrade insurgent capabilities into irrelevance 25/

@threadreaderapp please unroll