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President Trump says Islamic State is defeated, but in northern #Nigeria, a group calling itself Islamic State West Africa Province is on a tear; overrunning the most fortified military bases, building nascent state structures & winning the propaganda war. (Thread)
In the past six months, ISWAP has launched a blitzkrieg across Northeastern Nigeria, attacking the army some 40 times, capturing more than a dozen of the most heavily defended bases and looting what the UN calls a “massive” trove of heavy weaponry.
This has happened on the eve of Nigeria’s presidential election, one of the worlds largest experiments in democracy. The attacks have stunned Nigeria’s top commanders and sapped the morale of its troops.
Many officers and infantry we spoke to say they are being outgunnned by well-trained insurgents who now have the same calibre of weapons and more ammo. Some say they haven’t been paid for four months. Desertions are rising.
ISWAP's rapid rise could foreshadow a next chapter for Islamic State. Yes it’s getting beaten in the Levant but local affiliates are expanding in a flurry of far-flung states, battling local armies and carving fundamentalist enclaves in Afghanistan, Mali, the Philippines, Somalia
Northern Nigeria is where Islamic State’s allies have gone furthest. ISWAP now controls trade routes, taxes the local fish industry, regulates agriculture & imposes its extremist brand of Islamic justice. Its entrenching itself in local communities weary from a decade of conflict
“They became much stronger, with much more firepower. We have to break contact and retreat when they engage us,” said one soldier from 157 battalion that was ejected from its base in the town of Metele in November where some 100 soldiers died.
“Hang on a minute...ISWAP?! What about Boko Haram?” Good question. ISWAP is essentially a splinter group from Boko Haram. They split in 2016 when ISIS helped engineer a violent coup that dumped Boko Haram leader Abubakr Shekau for a young commander called Abu Musab al-Barnawi.
What about ISWAP’s links with Islamic State? We know that seasoned fighters from W Africa who traveled to Libya & Middle East have returned to augment ISWAP ranks. ISIS theologians have sent instructions to stop attacking schools & markets & stop preaching that the Earth is flat
ISWAP also has much more sophisticated propaganda. Its internal Telegram channels are like a jihadi Instagram: fighters share photos of sunsets over Lake Chad or dressed for battle. News items announce sumptuous harvests from farms run by displaced people invited back to the area
New videos show ISWAP using lethal weaponry such as armor-plated, vehicle-borne bombs made in weapons factories that seem to evidence technology transfer. We were told that a small group of foreign fighters from North Africa and the Caucasus came to Lake Chad to train recruits.
Much about ISWAP remains a mystery. Analysts are split on whether it is centralized around Mr. Barnawi or scattered across autonomous brigades. ISWAP hasn’t declared a caliphate, making its hard to assess its territorial control over vast areas where fighters blend with villagers
But the success of ISWAP’s military offensive speaks volumes. In public,Nigerian officials say the insurgency is defeated. Privately, many now talk only of containing it. This is an important & undercovered story. Thanks for reading. Full story here: wsj.com/articles/islam…
