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John Rentoul
@JohnRentoul
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Next Tory leader run-offs: @ConHome survey of party members
Javid 36% vs Hunt 35%
Gove 43% vs Hunt 29%
(Neither 23% and 24%)
conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2…
Raab 60% vs Hunt 30%
Johnson 61% vs Hunt 33%
Gove 44% vs Javid 31%
conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2… #canyouseethepatternyet
Johnson 61% vs Javid 30%
Raab 57% vs Javid 30%
conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2…
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John Rentoul
@JohnRentoul
#PMQs about to begin. Lidington vs Thornberry. Independent politics team standing by to comment on Facebook video afterwards
Interesting exchanges re Irish border after Lyra McKee's death. Andrew Grice and @LizzyBuchan will be commenting here after #PMQs facebook.com/pg/indypolitic…
Going live now
Read 8 tweets
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John Rentoul
@JohnRentoul
Interesting chart from @YouGov via @MattChorley @timesredbox nuk-tnl-deck-email.s3.amazonaws.com/2/daf719b7ee19…
But Con could be added to "Leave", taking it to 46% vs "Remain" 32%, with Labour ("Don't Know") 22%
If we assume Labour splits three quarters in favour of Remain, that would produce Leave 52%, Remain 48% #familiar
Read 3 tweets
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John Rentoul
@JohnRentoul
“Nigel Farage has been more successful than any politician, other than Margaret Thatcher, of getting his agenda through, and he has done it from outside Parliament”: Ann Widdecombe, Brexit Party candidate, on @GMB
Widdecombe in favour of a hard border in Ireland
You can imagine Juncker, Tusk & Varadkar in that meeting: "How can we force the UK to stay? Let's make up some dribble about the border"
Read 7 tweets

Related threads

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Tim Montgomerie
@montie
One after another after another, Tory MPs queueing up to essentially Tweet that breaking promises on one of the biggest issues in post-war politics shouldn’t have repercussions. Now Michael Gove. Such a party doesn’t have a happy future.
1/2 Pathetic to hear Dominic Grieve blame Ukip infiltration for losing the confidence of his local Tory association. No Mr Grieve - you risk losing your 'safe seat' because you promised to honour an historic referendum result before the Gen Elxn and did 100% opposite afterwards
2/2 Hearing @BrandonLewis, @MichaelGove, @JamesCleverly etc defend DG today betrays Con leadership really doesn't understand seriousness of a) its potentially HISTORIC failure to deliver #Brexit; b) its massive breach of trust with voters + c) a general post-EUref incompetence
Read 6 tweets
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Katy Balls
@katyballs
Which division lobby will the next Tory leader walk into on Tuesday night? Conservative MPs increasingly think it will be an MP in the aye lobby that succeeds Theresa May as Prime Minister – my iWeekend piece
inews.co.uk/news/brexit/to…
After a week of high drama and successive government defeats, talk has turned to who will succeed May once this unhappy chapter of Tory drama reaches its end
renewed optimism in government that May could pass – or at least get very close to passing – her deal next week. If the vote looks close next week, May will come under pressure to set an exit date
Read 9 tweets
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Sergio Graziosi
@GraziosiSergio
What the hell is @jeremycorbyn doing?
Why is he enabling #Tory #Brexit?
Is this the final betrayal?
No, it isn't.
It's the predicted effect of decisions taken 2-3 years ago. All things considered, it's not as bad as it could have been (thanks to #StopBrexit crowd).

Thread.
1/n
To understand why, I need to outline 2 important mechanisms that most people, politicians and commentators seem to ignore, dismiss or simply don't get. They have different and somewhat opposite consequences, but are both decisive in the current & foreseeable predicaments.
2/n
1st and foremost: the biggest constraint that applies to political decision-making comes from the past decisions & policies.
It is a massive constraint.
Cameron COULD NOT convincingly campaign for #Remain, because his own policies CREATED the discontent channelled by #Leave.
3/n
Read 23 tweets
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Derrick Berthelsen
@DerrickBerthel1
1/ESRC-sponsored Party Members Project, run out of Queen Mary University of London and Sussex University, has published Brexit polling today of all voters, Tory voters & Tory members. Some thoughts:
esrcpartymembersproject.org/2019/01/04/no-…
2/ First this polling gives us an opportunity to gauge the validity of Conservative Home polling. Spoiler alert – it suggests Conservative Home’s polls, at least on this subject, appear pretty robust.
conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2…
3/ It confirms that the often-quoted figure that some 70-75% of Tory members voted to leave the EU in 2016 is about right. This poll has the figure at 72%. Conservative Home at 71%.
Read 20 tweets
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Simon Usherwood
@Usherwood
Let's talk about mutual recognition for a bit:

1/
This is on back of @ConHome leaks of draft White Paper, suggesting a MR regime as a way of avoiding border controls (conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2…)

2/
@ConHome (we don't know if this is in final version BTW)

3/
Read 11 tweets
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Jill Rutter
@jillongovt
so @ConHome is publishing the DD draft white paper in parallel to the govt's effort conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2… Key to remember that either one needs to pass these tests instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/six-tests…
@ConHome anything that assumed general mutual recognition was, for reasons set out in our report Trade After Brexit, very unlikely to fly instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publications/t…
@ConHome as @instituteforgov noted earlier this week, the big move at Chequers was the abandonment of mutual recognition - too much cake and eating it for the EU to swallow ..instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/after-che…
Read 4 tweets

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