Thread by @DerrickBerthel1

1/ESRC-sponsored Party Members Project, run out of Queen Mary University of London and Sussex University, has published Brexit polling today of all voters, Tory voters & Tory members. Some thoughts:
esrcpartymembersproject.org/2019/01/04/no-…

2/ First this polling gives us an opportunity to gauge the validity of Conservative Home polling. Spoiler alert – it suggests Conservative Home’s polls, at least on this subject, appear pretty robust.
conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2…

3/ It confirms that the often-quoted figure that some 70-75% of Tory members voted to leave the EU in 2016 is about right. This poll has the figure at 72%. Conservative Home at 71%.

4/ It confirms that Brexit remains by far the most important issue for the British electorate & especially with Tory members (75%).
All Voters - 60%
Tory Voters – 68%
Tory members – 75%

5/ It confirms that Tory members continue to believe that voting to leave the EU was the right decision with some 79% of Tory members agreeing.

6/ Importantly that figure includes some 26% of Tory members who voted Remain in 2016 providing further evidence that a significant proportion of the British people believe Brexit must be delivered regardless of how they voted in 2016. I call these people democrats.

7/ Some 97% of Tory members who voted to Leave in 2016 maintain that the country made the right decision - suggesting that the UK establishment’s continued Project Fear pronouncements are failing to turn the Tory membership against Brexit.

8/ On Tory members preferred Brexit outcome No Deal is very clearly the preferred outcome vs either May’s Deal or Remaining in the EU.

No Deal vs May’s deal vs Remain
57% v 23% v 15%

9/ And No Deal is even more the preferred outcome when compared to May’s deal alone with almost two thirds of Tory members wanting to leave the EU this March under WTO terms

No deal vs May’s deal
64% v 29%

10/ This compares to the findings in 11th Dec 2018 BMG poll which found that 64% of ALL THE ELECTORATE (not just Tory members) preferred a WTO deal to May’s deal

Withdrawal Deal v WTO (leading to Canada style FTA)
36% v 64%

bmgresearch.co.uk/change-britain…

11/ Thus not only is there no sign of a shift in public support towards May’s Brexit deal, on the contrary - despite continued Project Fear - public support for a WTO/No Deal Brexit is both significant (two thirds of the people) and hardening.

12/Indeed there are signs that Project Fear is having the opposite effect to that intended. The ESRC poll asked if people believed a No Deal Brexit would cause serious disruption. 72% of Tory voters & 76% of Tory members said the warnings were ‘exaggerated or invented’.

13/ Nor do Tory members believe the argument that leaving the EU will hit long term UK economic growth either. Indeed 64% (v 19%) agree that leaving the EU without a deal will have a positive rather than negative effect on Britain’s economy in the medium to long term.

14/ As for support for a second Brexit referendum among Tory party members - 82% are against it including a large number who voted remain in 2016 but believe honouring the referendum result is a democratic requirement.

Yes- 14%
No - 82%

15/ And should May ignore the people and try to stop Brexit through another referendum - some 75% of Tory members say that they would feel either “betrayed” or “angry”.

16/ The polling evidence remains clear. Tory members & voters do NOT want May’s deal, do NOT want a second referendum, do NOT want to stay in the EU but DO want to leave in March on WTO terms.

17/ More than 70% of Conservative voters at the last election voted leave. More than 70% of Conservative members voted to leave. MP’s who refuse to follow the public’s wishes WILL be punished at the ballot box

18/ These figures act to reinforce my personal view that any failure to deliver a real Brexit (& please note the public do NOT view Theresa May’s deal as a real Brexit @michaelgove et al) will destroy the Conservative party & create a political crisis in the UK.

19/ Theresa May, her cabinet & all Tory MP’s must decide whether destroying the Conservative party and creating a constitutional crisis simply to prevent a few months of disruption is really worth it….

20/ Please RT to every Tory MP asking them to consider strongly before they vote on January 15th – and in the inevitable continued votes in the months ahead.