GDP boils down to 3 things: # of working people × the amount of stuff they produce with capital-inputs per hour × # of hours they work. India stuck in "jobless growth" trap that prioritizes capital & FIRE sectors but low labour participation & low skills orfonline.org/expert-speak/c…
In 2007, the Chinese premier Wen Jiabao, declared that the country's economic growth trajectory was “unstable, unbalanced, uncoordinated and unsustainable”. A judgement that applies better to India's economy.
Lopsided finance & real estate along with severe human capital blockages made India's growth highly unequal & self-limiting since 80s. But in the short term, as Mody points to, its shadow banking crisis in infra lending thats the tail wagging the dog.
India's slow banking crisis has reached its Lehman moment. But all financial crisis are politco-economic. Roots can be traced to 2005-12, when "state banks went on a lending bender, extending credit to dubious tycoons & to infrastructure projects." economist.com/business/2018/…
Which rentier/industrialists capture which bank loans? Can be surmised from sectoral & pubilc/pvt composition of banking B/S.
Conclusion? Modi's 2014 win & Rajan's RBI expulsion related to cronies wanting non performing loan losses to be borne by public. bis.org/review/r160909…
Conclusion? Modi's 2014 win & Rajan's RBI expulsion related to cronies wanting non performing loan losses to be borne by public. bis.org/review/r160909…
2 indexes of India's staggering #inequality :
1) Less than 10% of Indians are richer than the 𝘱𝘰𝘰𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘵 Americans (~$2200 PPP adj income)
2) More Indian Billionaires now than ever before (106 vs just 2 in 1995)
ht @BrankoMilan documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/712… forbes.com/billionaires/#…
1) Less than 10% of Indians are richer than the 𝘱𝘰𝘰𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘵 Americans (~$2200 PPP adj income)
2) More Indian Billionaires now than ever before (106 vs just 2 in 1995)
ht @BrankoMilan documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/712… forbes.com/billionaires/#…
5 of the top 15 most polluting companies in the world are in India. Coal power, mining & cement companies run by billionaires (Agarwals Vedanta, Adani, Ambani, Tata etc). Changing India's unsustainable growth model requires dethroning polluting Oligarchs.
