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1)The most pervasive fiction in politics right now is that Trump always wins and can get away with whatever he wants. Trump lost badly when Barr got pushed around yesterday and then failed to show up today. It gave House Democrats legal leverage. It also cost Trump his henchman.
2) House Democrats will destroy Barr to make an example out of him and make other non-cooperators think twice. But Barr is already neutralized. Trump took him off the table today, in favor of Emmet Flood, his last henchman in the bullpen, and his most low-percentage strategy yet.
3) Emmet Flood is not to be taken lightly. He’s an expert at trying to use executive privilege to obstruct investigations. But that’s not a strategy that ever works. It was always going to be Trump’s last ditch move after everything else failed. Ask Nixon how it worked for him.
4) Trump and the Democrats are now fighting on a dozen fronts when it comes to their investigations into him. Trump is on defense in every one of them. All the Dems have to do is break through on one front - one legal victory or one obstructor to flip - and Trump is finished.
5) Meanwhile, the wobbliest of Senate Republicans quietly shot down another Trump nominee today, Stephen Moore, after shooting down Herman Cain. They’re trying to play both sides, in case Trump is fully exposed and taken down by the time they have to run for reelection.
6) The GOP isn’t going to do the right thing for its own sake. Nothing works that way on their side. But the GOP Senators in purple-ish states wake up every day and worry about whether they’re gaining or losing ground in their own reelection race by sticking with Trump.
7) This isn’t “optimism.” My analysis is a cold hard ugly cynical look at how politics and leverage really work. If my facts and logic seem optimistic compared to whatever else you hear, it’s only because so many TV pundits are feeding you doomsday gibberish to keep you tuned in.
8) The past couple years have been horrible. Some of the damage won’t be undone. But in the sense that this is a war, Trump is on the defensive, and yesterday was arguably his biggest loss to date. He acknowledged that today when he abruptly gave up on his favorite new toy Barr.
9) If Trump is winning and he can get away with anything he wants, how come he hasn’t been able to pull off most of what he wants? It’s because he loses most of the time. His major victories are few but get huge attention. We have to focus on making sure he keeps suffering losses
10) We’re in hell and things are on fire. But don’t let anyone demotivate you by telling you twenty things are on fire when in reality only ten things are on fire. Winning requires knowing what you’re up against, not listening to pundits who pretend it’s even worse than it is.
