Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #ga06

Most recents (24)

So, here's how redistricting and, in some cases, gerrymandering, helped the Republicans take the House:

Again, Republicans had full control over redistricting in 17 states (AL, AR, FL, GA, IN, KS, KY, MS, MO, NE, NH, NC, OK, SC, TN, TX and WV).
Democrats had full control over redistricting in 7 states (IL, MD, MA, NV, NM, OR and RI).

There were 3 states in which an Independent Commission drew the lines but Republicans could override them (IA, OH and UT).
And there was 1 state in which an Independent Commission drew the lines but Democrats could override them (NY).

Because of the 2020 Census, CA, IL, MI, NY, OH, PA and WV all lost House seats.
Read 23 tweets
2022 #Midterms Simulation: #ArtoftheGerrymander

A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)

To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter ImageImageImageImage

I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf

Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Alabama
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.… ImageImageImage
Read 111 tweets
Thread: which party is "ahead" in redistricting? In my view, it's close to a wash. But the truth is, it depends which metric you use.

As @Nate_Cohn has alluded, tracking by district partisanship (slight Dem gain) differs from tracking by seat control (neutral/slight GOP gain).
New Jersey's new map is a perfect illustration. By @CookPolitical PVI (a measure of districts' 16/20 prez performance vs. national result), three seats have gone from R-leaning to D-leaning: #NJ03, #NJ05 and #NJ11.

Meanwhile, one seat moves from D-leaning to R-leaning: #NJ07.
By district partisanship metrics, that sounds like a great deal for Dems. And it mostly is!

However, Dems currently hold *all four* of these seats. That means the new map's most likely practical outcome in 2022 is still a Dem loss of one seat (9D-3R, down from 10D-2R in 2020).
Read 7 tweets
The red flags re: the #GA06 election (Ossoff v Handel) & the public attention brought to them almost certainly played a key part in the court’s landmark decision that paperless touchscreens are unconstitutional. Those who claim we shld not discuss red flags do a disservice. 1/
2/ I wrote about the #GA06 election here. Change doesn’t occur in a vacuum. Those who think we can effect meaningful change—while pretending to be able to know that no one has ever hacked an election—are naive.…
3/ Fortunately, @MarilynRMarks1 stepped up to the plate in Georgia. But it was not easy.
Read 6 tweets
GEORGIA: Despite Dems' 2020 triumphs, GA Rs still control state gov't & redistricting may be their last chance to reverse the slide.

The likeliest scenario: merging #GA06 Rep. Lucy McBath (D) & #GA07 Rep. Carolyn Bourdeaux (D) in northern ATL and drawing a 9R-5D map (right).
In the scenario above, McBath/Bourdeaux would have to face off in a primary for political survival. #GA07 and every other R district in the northern part of the state would have voted for Trump by 20%+ in 2020.

Rs would easily gain one seat towards the House majority. BUT...
There's also an outside chance Rs could attempt an even more aggressive gerrymander, targeting *both* #GA06 and #GA07 for a 10R-4D map.

In the scenario below, 10/14 districts would've voted for Trump by 15%+ points in 2020 - even though GA as a whole went for Biden.
Read 4 tweets
I see a lot of convos today about Marjorie Taylor Greene's past controversial comments, thanks to @CNN & @mmfa

McCarthy told @axios he is disturbed/plans to speak with her

This narrative misses crucial context: NONE of this is new to political observers/GOP leaders. A thread >>
On June 17 ( a week after the June 9 #GA14 primary but well before an Aug 11 runoff) @MZanona & I reported on a trove of her racist/Islamophobic/QAnon comments

MTG is a product of MAGA internet. She built a following posting hours of videos of this stuff…
Among the worst MTG comments:

She called the '18 midterms “an Islamic invasion of our government”

She said Dems are “trying to keep the black people in a modern-day form of slavery”

“The most mistreated group of people in the United States today are white males"
Read 6 tweets
Polls have closed in Georgia, and we'll be liveblogging the results and tweeting here!…
You'll want to have this bookmarked: Our county benchmarks, which will give us an idea if each candidate is getting the numbers they need.…
Getting our first few hundred votes. As always: Friends don't let friends over-interpret small numbers of votes.
Read 54 tweets
Of the nation's current 435 House districts, 226 voted for Trump in '16 and 209 voted for Clinton.

Based on my initial analysis, Biden carried 216, Trump carried 208 and 11 remain too close to call. But it's pretty clear to me Biden is on track for a narrow majority.
Here are the 12 Trump '16 districts I can say with confidence Biden has flipped blue so far:


And the two Clinton '16 districts Trump has flipped red so far:

Here are the 11 districts that I'm still not 100% certain about ('16 winner):

#CA48 (Clinton)
#IL14 (Trump)
#IL17 (Trump)
#MI11 (Trump)
#NV03 (Trump)
#NJ03 (Trump)
#NY18 (Trump)
#NY19 (Trump)
#OH01 (Trump)
#TX15 (Clinton)
#TX28 (Clinton)

I'd be open to anyone's math on these.
Read 4 tweets
GEORGIA Democratic Candidates
#GA1 #GA2 #GA3 #GA4 #GA5 #GA6 #GA7 #GA8 #GA9 #GA10 #GA11 #GA12 #GA13 #GA14 & SENATE (x2)
*Postcards & Links to Follow & Support*
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
#HoldTheHouse #FlipTheSenate
All States here:…
#PostcardsforAmerica Image
Hey #GEORGIA #FlipTheSenate
Say Bye Loeffler
Democratic Challenger
*Jungle Primary: Candidate who gets 50% of votes wins
Current polls show Rev. Warnock at 31%, GOP Loeffler at 23%//GOP Collins 22%; Dem Lieberman 9% Image
Read 20 tweets
Every state has big stakes on the ballot — it's just some are facing a perfect storm where so much that matters is competitive at once.

So I'm starting this ongoing thread of states, to encapsulate as many stakes as I can within 280 characters. (Let's do roughly one a day!)
1️⃣ North Carolina really is it:

—Could decide WH
—Could decide U.S. Senate majority
—Ds may gain at least 2 House seats. More?
—Can Ds keep governorship (& veto power)?
—Can Ds pick-up a legislative chamber?
—3 Supreme Court seats!👀
—AG, LG (if Gov vacancy...), SoS competitive
2️⃣ Montana is up there too:
—Could decide Senate majority!
—Open Gov race. Would be GOP's first win since 2000, likely give them trifecta. And it's Gianforte on the ballot.
—Open SoS & AG races
—An open, tight House race
—An intriguing Supreme Court race
—Gun control referendum
Read 40 tweets
GEORGIA Democratic Candidates
#GA1 #GA2 #GA3 #GA4 #GA5 #GA6 #GA7 #GA8 #GA9 #GA10 #GA11 #GA12 #GA13 #GA14 & SENATE (x2)
*Postcards & Links to Follow & Support*
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
#HoldTheHouse #FlipTheSenate
All States here:…
#PostcardsforAmerica Image
Hey #GEORGIA #FlipTheSenate
Bye Kelly Loeffler
Dems, Nov 3 Jungle Primary
D Jackson
J James
T Shealey
M Lieberman
J Slade
R Warnock
R Winfield
@WinfieldForUS Image
Read 21 tweets
The Jolt: This Georgia Supreme Court justice is about to deliver more than a verdict #gapol…
More jolt: Brian Kemp is moving closer to deployment of coronavirus strike teams made up of members of the National Guard: #gapol…
More jolt: The latest poll from @StopBigMoney shows a deadlock in #ga06 w/ a 4.9% MOE:
McBath D: 50%
Handel R: 47%
Biden: 52%
Trump: 45%
Read 3 tweets

One of the closest political associates & "BFF" of Johsie Cruz, the @GaRepublicans candidate for Congress in #GA04, is Rommys Beltran.

Beltran is currently facing charges of child cruelty, theft, insurance fraud & more over a Youth Academy she operated in Alpharetta. #gapol ImageImageImage
Beltran's Alternative Youth Academy (AKA "Advancing Youth's Academy") was founded 2010.

A 2011 article discussed AYA, where teens with alleged discipline or substance abuse issues were sent.

"Dr. Rommys Chad" (Beltran) compared AYA's approach to jail.… Image
The article mentioned another AYA instructor, "Capt. Mike Guerrero", and stated that Rommys Chad (Beltran) used to work with him in "Cobb law enforcement".

Rommys Beltran, on her current "MAGA Beltran" Facebook page, posted old pictures of herself as a cop. This one says 2006. Image
Read 32 tweets
I'm angry,

but also at myself.

The truth is: We've given up our rights — 1 by 1 — & allowed the gov't to trample over us.

We let it happen.

I'm channeling my anger into action.

Working on a project to identify vulnerable House dems & connect Republicans in those districts.
Here’s an example of what I’m working on:…

Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District is flippable.
Georgia’s 6th District is flippable.

This one’s for you, Cobb, Fulton, & Dekalb Counties.…
Read 6 tweets
Time for super pacs to start running ads in these districts letting voters know if these people vote for impeachment, they get voted out. Period.
We're gonna make these people famous today

From now until Wednesday, it's time to put pressure on these Dems:

You vote with AOC and impeachment, and you're toast. She's in New York City and doesn't give a shit you're in a red district.

Voting for censure is your only way out


Tom O’Halleran #AZ01



(202) 225-3361

Lucy McBath #GA06



(202) 225-4501
Read 11 tweets
Thread: @GaSecofState has opened investigation of election security activist @MarilynRMarks1 and election security expert @rad_atl. One allegation: Marks illegally took and tweeted a photo from a secure voting area. Marks denies this, tweeting that she found the photo online. 1/
@GaSecofState @MarilynRMarks1 @rad_atl I found the photo easily. It accompanies a Habersham County article on the new voting machines dated Nov. 6. The photo credit indicates the photo of a "test drive" was taken by Dean Dyer of radio station wrwh. Now ... 2/…
@GaSecofState @MarilynRMarks1 @rad_atl Form me, this raises some questions, all crucial. If @GaSecofState is investigating this allegation, WHICH IT MADE, why didn't its crack investigators spend the 90 seconds I did to Google "Georgia voting machines" images and scroll down to find this, and 3/
Read 6 tweets
#MarchforTrump 📢👟🇺🇸💯

Men & Women! 💃🕺

October 17th @ 10 AM

US Capitol AND Locations across the country!

#KAG #MAGA #WomenForTrump #stopimpeachmentnow #StandWithTrump #standwithPOTUS

📢We will be having protests outside of congressional district offices in the following districts.📢
Read 5 tweets
Call these @HouseJudiciary Dems. Ask why they’re afraid to frame the debate.
Tell them to REINSTATE #AssaultWeaponsBan & propose Feinstein Sen. Bill 66.

@GregStantonAZ #AZ09 202-225-9888
@RepSwalwell #CA15 202-225-5065
@TedLieu #CA33 202-225-3976
@HouseJudiciary @gregstantonaz @RepSwalwell @tedlieu Call these @HouseJudiciary Dems. Ask why they’re afraid to frame the debate. Tell them to REINSTATE #AssaultWeaponsBan & propose Feinstein Sen. Bill 66.
@RepLouCorrea #CA46 202-225-2965
@RepKarenBass #CA37 202-225-7084
@RepZoeLofgren #CA19 202-225-3072
@HouseJudiciary @gregstantonaz @RepSwalwell @tedlieu Call these @HouseJudiciary Dems. Ask why they’re afraid to frame the debate. Tell them to REINSTATE #AssaultWeaponsBan & propose Feinstein Sen. Bill 66.
@JoeNeguse #CO02 202-225-2161
@RepValDemings #FL10 202-225-2176
@RepTedDeutch #FL22 202-225-3001
Read 8 tweets
Of your 46 Dem House Reps, 22 are afraid of #ImpeachmentInquiry. The only thing to fear is fear itself. Call & tell them: Do your job!

#CA05 @RepThompson 202-225-3311
#CA07 @RepBera 202-225-5716
#CA09 @RepMcNerney 202-225-1947
#CA10 @RepJoshHarder 202-225-4540
Of your 46 Dem House Reps, 22 are afraid of #ImpeachmentInquiry. The only thing to fear is fear itself. Call & tell them: Do your job!

#CA12 @SpeakerPelosi 202-225-4965
#CA16 @RepJimCosta 202-225-3341
#CA17 @RepRoKhanna 202-225-2631
#CA18 @RepAnnaEshoo 202-225-8104
Of your 46 Dem House Reps, 22 are afraid of #ImpeachmentInquiry. The only thing to fear is fear itself. Call & tell them:Do your job!

#CA19 @RepZoeLofgren 202-225-3072
#CA20 @RepJimmyPanetta 202-225-2861
#CA21 @RepTJCox 202-225-4695
#CA24 @RepCarbajal 202-225-3601
Read 46 tweets
Dear Dem @HouseJudiciary members;
@RepJerryNadler NY, @JacksonLeeTX18, @RepCohen TN, @RepHankJohnson GA; Experts say @SpeakerPelosi’s flat wrong. Think for yourself.

“Democrats Against Impeachment Invite Autocracy and a Loss in 2020”…
Dear Dem @HouseJudiciary members;
@RepTedDeutch FL, @RepKarenBass CA, @RepZoeLofgren CA, @RepRichmond LA; Experts say @SpeakerPelosi’s flat wrong. Think for yourself.

“Democrats Against Impeachment Invite Autocracy and a Loss in 2020”…
Dear Dem @HouseJudiciary members;
@RepJeffries NY, @RepCicilline RI, @RepSwalwell CA, @TedLieu CA, @RepRaskin MD;
Experts say @SpeakerPelosi is flat wrong. Think for yourself.

“Democrats Against Impeachment Invite Autocracy and a Loss in 2020”…
Read 15 tweets
(1/x) Hi NRA! It's time we clear something up.

I won this race because - after my son was senselessly murdered in 2012 - I stood up to do something about it.

I knew it was time to fight back.

⬇️ Stand with me ⬇️……
I was just a Marietta mom. I loved my son Jordan more than anything else in this world.

After Jordan was murdered - I realized that nobody was going change our laws for us, so I had to do it myself.
After Jordan was ripped away from me, I did not stop being his mom.

Every single thing that I do is out of the love that I have for my son.

My love for Jordan is what I extend to the work I do in my community every single day.
Read 6 tweets
#116th New Congress convenes soon!
43 HOUSE SEATS FLIPPED BLUE! 🌊🌊🌊 #BlueWave2018
(*Net of 40) 64 New Democratic Members in the HOUSE!
with @TeamPelosi leading the way
What do they stand for?
⤵️THREAD of ALL New Blue Congressfolk⤵️
w/ graphic, campaign website links & Twitter
Arizona #AZ02 #116thCongress
Representative Ann Kirkpatrick

"Proud lifelong Arizonan, former prosecutor & congresswoman, independent voice for working Arizona families."

Arizona #AZ09 #AZ9 #116thCongress
Representative Greg Stanton
Former Phoenix Mayor, Former Phoenix City Councilman & Attorney

Read 67 tweets
🚨MY MASTER THREAD of #Midterm2018 results analysis, including an array of data dives. Will the country chose to repudiate president Trump? Health care instead of the wall? RT & strap in, folks, tonight could be a wild ride. We get the first batch of results at around 6 PM ET.
Turnout has looked unprecedented for weeks now. Indications today that it could even beat these lofty expectations. At this point I think I’d buy for pickups in Tossup sub/urban seats like #TX07 #TX32 and #TX26, but sell in more rural districts that have looked like reaches.
Read 82 tweets

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