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Trita Parsi
@tparsi
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
/THREAD/

This may explain Bolton's provocative press release threatening war with Iran:

Quads force commander Qassem Soleimani has for weeks insisted that the US will not attack Iran. He just posted this video on his Telegram account yesterday:

This must be very disturbing to Bolton. His strategy is based on pressuring (economically) and scaring (militarily) the Iranian gov into submission - or war.

But if Soleimani insists the US won't attack, that indicates that Tehran is not taking the military threat seriously >>
So Bolton twists the routine deployment of a US warship to the Persian Gulf to convince Iran that the threat is real. It disturbs Bolton endlessly that his warmongering is not taken seriously by Soleimani.

Yet, this does not change the underlying reality: Bolton wants war.
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Trita Parsi
@tparsi
1. Zarif's resignation has mobilized the public and elements of the political establishment favoring moderation behind him, while revealing the common interest between Iran's hardliners and hawks in Israel, DC and Saudi.

If Zarif stays, he'll be in stronger position than before.
2. If Ayatollah Khamenei refuses to accept his resignation, Zarif will be serving BECAUSE of Khamenei's insistence. This will give him an important layer of protection against his hardline critics.
3. The public outcry in support of Zarif will make it all the more difficult for Rouhani and Ayatollah Khamenei to accept his resignation. It's a reminder that while hardliners have stepped up their attacks on Zarif, they enjoy far less public support than he does.
Read 4 tweets
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Trita Parsi
@tparsi
Shocked to see how some have reacted to revelation that the traffic on their Twitter is largely driven by bots of the MEK terror org.

Instead of taking a step back and assessing why their tweets are so popular with these terrorists, they've chosen to attack the messenger :(
Most peace-loving, pro-democracy people would be horrified to find out at their tweets are being promoted by a terrorist organization.

But these guys are instead teaming up with the terrorist army of bots to attack the independent researcher who revealed this whole thing.
Makes you wonder why they're so comfortable with being operationally on the same side as the MEK terror org.

Difficult to take their slogans in favor of democracy in Iran seriously when they're striking de facto alliances with Saudi-funded terrorists...
Read 3 tweets
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Trita Parsi
@tparsi
1. Willful blindness is needed to bemoan America's lessened footprint in the MidEast and claim it'll "destabilize" the region. In reality, the US's policy of primacy has encouraged US "allies" to be even more reckless and destabilizing.
Consider the following:
>>
2. Would Saudi have started the reckless war in Yemen without the explicit or implicit green light from the US and Riyadh's (correct) belief that the US would assist them in the war? The planes are American, the bombs are American. EVEN THE MECHANICS ON THE GROUND ARE AMERICAN! >
3. The New York Times reports today that US military officials are in the flight operations room in Riyadh, providing intelligence and tactical advice to the Saudis as they ravage Yemen.

nytimes.com/2018/12/25/wor…
>>
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Heshmat Alavi
@HeshmatAlavi
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Matthew RJ Brodsky
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