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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Let's just think about this for a moment - if accurate Conservative backbenchers would like a leadership contest to start in June and be concluded by party conference at end September. Guaranteeing no Brexit movement during this time facing an end October deadline
The new PM would then have four weeks having campaigned almost certainly to revise the Withdrawal Agreement in a way we know the EU would accept, or face no deal which the Commons can be expected to oppose again. What then?
(would not accept, oops....)
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More from @DavidHenigUK see all

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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Brexit wouldn't be Brexit if a letter to the PM from her MPs about trade policy was fully accurate and this one on being in a Customs Union certainly isn't - as well as deepening the no compromise hole which we're in... 1/
"we would have neither an independent trade policy nor any significant say in the trade policy of a wider entity" is to set an impossibly purist and unrealistic definition of independent trade policy as having no constraints from other agreements whether regulatory or tariff 2/
In reality trade agreements set constraints, whether that would be following EU or US regulations, having less power over tariffs, or having to match best offers in services. A Customs Union would be a constraint, it would not stop an independent trade policy, WTO seat etc 3/
Read 16 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Is there a path forward on WTO reform? I'm more sceptical than @MPetsinger because I see internationalism (institutions, agreements) eroded by national populists - who then find the world isn't quite so simple... chathamhouse.org/expert/comment…
In the case of both Brexit and Trump international agreements were going to be easy, but then it turns out they aren't, and since populists stand against the old party compromises, the only path is doubling down (no-deal / higher tariffs) which doesn't change the problem
Social media encourages populists not to back down, not to compromise etc. International organisations can't work on this basis, so if we want them to continue we're going to have find new solutions - tricky stuff
Read 3 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
We can have a UK-EU deal after leaving with no-deal (or the EU will shift red lines) or as Farage said yesterday "They'll come running".

Sorry the EU doesn't work like that - and it was those who campaigned for Brexit who always said so
Who said "EU trade representatives have to deal with an unresponsive 1950s bureaucracy and 28 sets of competing special interests. This undermines the EU’s ability to strike trade deals"? Vote Leave.

Now say the EU can do a quick deal with the UK? voteleavetakecontrol.org/briefing_trade…
And yes leaving with no deal has an immediate economic impact, as barriers rise on perhaps 60% of our trade. That's not corporate special interests, that's peoples jobs.
Read 4 tweets

Related threads

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Charlie Kindel
@ckindel
@jasoncrawford Let's talk "Mechanisms". As an ex-Amazonian you are well aware of this concept, but our mutual customers (followers) may not be.

Everyone has good intentions...
@jasoncrawford 2/ Everyone WANTS to do the right thing (e.g. read the doc sent out by email the night before).

But good intentions are never enough.
@jasoncrawford 3/ Sh*t doesn't get done based solely on good intentions. Change can't happen based only on good intentions.

What you need is a way to mechanize people's good intentions.
Read 12 tweets
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Steven Sinofsky
@stevesi
1/ Some thoughts on big companies about something I believe.

Nearly everything that happens in a big company happens with a battle, dissent, even name calling—the very best and worst with no correlation between the volume of (let’s call it) chair throwing and quality of outcome.
2/ When things are going well (financially, customers, etc), stringing together any set of chair throwing points can look like a mastermind of a strategy. There was a battle, clearer heads prevailed, and then a strong decision was made. #leadership #strategy #execution
3/ When things are not going well, stringing together any set of chair throwing points looks like, well, chair throwing. It looks like infighting, juvenile, power plays. Connecting chair throwing incidents makes the whole company look like clown town.
Read 12 tweets
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Alexander Clarkson
@APHClarkson
There is a reason why economic and political crises tend to escalate when everyone gets back to the office in early September
With the Greece crisis there were signs of trouble by early 2009 yet many were still overwhelmed when it escalated.
With Ukraine it was clear tensions were building by June 2013 but many were still shocked by escalation in November 2013 and January 2014
If Theresa May really has lost control of her party then there is a high likelihood that the starting gun for the escalation of the Brexit crisis will be the Conservative Party Conference in late September and early October 2018
Read 3 tweets
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Alexander Clarkson
@APHClarkson
If May's attempt to give her negotiators more room for manoeuvre leads to her fall the Tories will become the No Deal party.
Two years and two months after the referendum there is no sign that the majority of Tory Party members or MPs have come to terms with the asymmetry of power between a struggling UK and an increasingly powerful EU.
In September the Labour Party conference risks descending into chaos over anti-Semitism. The Conservative Party conference risks descending into farce as leadership battles break out into the open.

And the SNP party conference will be run in an efficient and disciplined fashion
Read 4 tweets
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Mr Corbyn in The Times
@TimesCorbyn
These are the organisations that contributed towards the Chakrabarti report. This is the first time I looked over the groups, I presume that someone did at the time. There are of course interested parties like the Board of Deputies, but also a number of unusual & unsavoury groups
For example who are 'Brighton and Hove Palestine Solidarity Campaign'?
Here's where they link to Tony Greenstein's hate-filled blog. Tony lives in Brighton does he have any other links to them? What input did they have into the report?
brightonpsc.org/campaigns-2/br…
Update on this Brighton group:
Read 62 tweets
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Madeleina Kay 🇪🇺🇬🇧 #EUsupergirl
@albawhitewolf
Dear @BBCR4Feedback
Tomorrow I will post a package of #StopBrexit paraphernalia to you
The materials are used by the Remain campaign & have been crowdfunded
I will also post prints of photos from the last 21 months (see thread below) so you can see what you haven't been covering
1/It has taken me several hours to compile nearly 2 years of photos from the #Remain campaign into this 22 page document, however i felt it necessary to do so in order to illustrate to the #BBC the extent and commitment of our campaign which you haven't been acknowledging.
2/July 2016 #StopBrexit march in #London
Read 25 tweets

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