Thread by @PalmerReport

1) If anyone thinks Trump is winning just because America keeps suffering losses, they're misunderstanding things. In war, both sides suffer losses every day, until one side collapses. Trump is surrounded on all sides, hanging on by a thread, with no plan and no way out.

2) House Democrats are battling Trump on a dozen fronts. He's being forced to play defense on all of them. They have him surrounded. If/when they break through on any one of those fronts, they defeat him. Trump can try an offensive, but that never works when you're surrounded.

3) Trump has lost most of his henchmen. Some quit. Some he fired. Some cut plea deals against him. Some are in prison. His remaining ones (Barr, Mnuchin) are all now being forced to play defense. Hard for his henchmen to play offense when they're trying to fend off going to jail.

4) If Trump were winning, his approval rating would be high and his scandals would be behind him. Instead his approval rating is in the toilet, his scandals are more at the forefront than ever, impeachment poll numbers are climbing, and his small 2020 odds shrink more by the day.

5) No one can point to ANY front where Trump is "winning." Some will point to the ways in which Trump has damaged America. But this is a war arena. Both sides cause damage to each other every day; that has nothing to do with who's winning. No one wins in war; someone just loses.

6) The Mueller report set things up such that if Trump loses in 2020, he's immediately arrested and he goes to prison for the rest of his life. That's automatic now. It's also clear that Trump has no idea how to become popular enough to win in 2020.

7) Polling trends show that within a month, the majority of Americans will be calling for impeachment. At that point impeachment will happen – and no, it won't help him. How would impeachment somehow magically make him more popular if the majority of Americans want him impeached?

8) And no, Russian hackers don't have a magic wand. They spent years coordinating with Trump to rig the 2016 election, and they STILL failed to make it happen. Trump would not be in office if not for Comey's last minute letter.

9) Russian hackers, voter suppression, etc can each move the needle only a tiny bit. They can only change the outcome in a very close state/race. If the Resistance works hard and ensures 2020 isn't close, Trump will be out – and then he'll go to prison.

10) And no, there's no scenario where Trump loses and then somehow magically remains in office. If he refused to leave after inauguration day, Supreme Court would rule that he's no longer president, and they'd have his ass dragged out of the Oval Office.

11) And before the fatalists can say it, no, Trump doesn't have a Supreme Court magic wand either. Kavanaugh doesn't get to vote five times. Roberts cares only about own his legacy, not about Trump's fate; he wouldn't vote to let Trump remain in power after he's clearly lost.

12) As things stand now, Trump has a 90% chance of losing the election, and if that happens, he has a 100% chance of going to prison. You can be in more of a losing position than that. And if that other 10% scares you, then get out and campaign your heart out for his opponent.

13) But really, the people in the Resistance yelling "Trump is winning" are the same people who aren't going to lift a finger in the 2020 race. They've already given themselves an excuse not to. It's up to the rest of us to work hard enough to overcome their fatalism.

14) These are the same folks who say I'm being "overly optimistic" when I point out that Trump is losing. That's funny, because I'm a huge cynic. My analysis contains no optimism. We're in hell. But this is a war, and the fact is, Trump's side is losing the most ground.

15) You all put a lot of effort into 2018. It worked. You won. That election put Trump on defense. He's been losing ground ever since. If you put the same or more effort into 2020, it'll work again. There are no magic wands on either side; it's all a grind. Now go grind it out!

16) Many of the replies to this thread are either “Why don’t the Dems use this magic wand,” or “What if Trump uses this magic wand.”

For the last time: THERE. ARE. NO. MAGIC. WANDS.

You have to get over that childlike notion if you want to understand this war and win it.

17) Trump constantly threatens to wave a magic wand. And some in the Resistance play right into his hands by choosing to believe that he has magic powers, even though he never does what he threatens. His magic wand threats are a distraction, while he quietly tries other things.