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If you want to accurately understand the current situation, you have to realize that Donald Trump’s life is already over. He’s going to prison the second he’s no longer in office. Assets seized too. His actions will be dictated by whether he understands his life is already over.
If Trump has deluded himself into believing that things are okay for him, or that he can magically info his already-sealed fate, he’ll take one approach. If he’s just coherent enough to understand that he’s already lost and his life is over, he’ll take a very different approach.
Trump will not magically win in 2020 with an approval rating in the gutter. Trump will not magically save himself by refusing to leave office after losing. He will not magically avoid the criminal charges already stacked against him. This is just reality.
The biggest weakness of the Resistance is that most of you are focused on the imaginary scenario in which magically succeeds, and then becomes king. When the real focus should be on the fact that Trump is crippled with no way out, and how to finish him off.
The people yelling “Trump has gotten away with everything” are too overcome with emotion to look at the facts. When a bank robber is being pursued by police who have him surrounded him, he hasn’t “gotten away” with anything. He’s already lost; he’s just putting off the inevitable
Cheating in an election isn’t a magic wand. Trump and Russia spent a year and a half endlessly plotting in secret, and were still only able to move the needle by 1% in a few states.
Trump’s 2020 cheating will have to be in plain sight, which makes it infinitely more stoppable (see Rudy-Ukraine). Also, you can’t rig an election/state unless it’s extremely close to begin with. There are no magic wands. So let’s make sure 2020 isn’t close. Then he’ll be gone.
Many of us want to focus on working to defeat Trump. Unfortunately, some in the Resistance now only exist to hysterically yell “Trump will win” at the rest of us. That kind demotivation is extremely harmful. I say this with all the love in the world: kindly shut the fuck up.
If Trump were “winning” he’d have a high approval rating, China and Mexico would be caving, Mueller/McGahn and other witnesses would be out of the picture, and demand for impeachment would be low. Instead the opposite is all true.
Trump frantically posted a hundred tweets/retweets this weekend about his scandals. Trump knows he’s losing and that it’s getting worse for him. Again, only question is whether he thinks he can turn his current dire situation around, or if he thinks he’s doomed.
If you’re deranged and you’re playing a board game, and you know you’re losing but you think you still have a small chance, you’ll keep playing. You might change strategy or cheat, but you’ll stay on the board. If you know you’re going to lose, you might flip over the whole board
For Trump, staying on the board would mean something along the lines of goading Democrats into impeaching him and hoping it somehow backfires and helps him, while making up more fake Biden scandals in the hope one of them catches on.
For Trump, flipping over the board would mean him doing something out of a horror movie. He’s too unpopular to benefit from starting a war, so he’d really have to go outside the box. Having Biden arrested, or something truly insane like that.
Keep in mind that if Trump goes the “flip over the whole game board” route, he knows he’s committing to a path where - if he fails - there’s no way he’ll still be in office by the time the election rolls around. He’d be in Guantanamo by then.
Trump is deranged, but he’s not usually a man of action. He puts off tough decisions. He tries to avoid taking bigger risks than he has to. He sticks to things he thinks he can safely get away with. He always walks away when he knows he’s lost (bankruptcy etc).
Question is, will he stick to these lifelong patterns, in the hope he somehow magically wins in 2020. Will he keep telling himself he’s more popular than he is, that his odds are better than they are, and so on?
Answer is yes, probably, for now. He’ll at least want to see how Mueller/McGahn testimony goes, how his court battles to suppress financial records play out, which way his poll numbers go after impeachment begins. If and when he loses all those battles, all bets are off.
But again, there are no magic wands. The more outrageous/insane of a move he tries to make, the lower the odds of it working, and the greater the odds of it finishing him off.
By far, Trump’s best outcome would be to cut a resignation plea deal now, in exchange for significantly reduced charges. It would be like declaring bankruptcy again, like he always does once he’s lost. Difference is, he’d do prison time even with a resignation deal.
We’re several steps away from knowing how he’ll ultimately play out his endgame. But his best weapon is the (false) perception that he has a magic wand, he’s winning, he’s getting away with everything. Stop buying the hype. He’s getting his ass kicked right now from all sides.
