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John Rentoul
@JohnRentoul
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Next Tory leader: chance implied by best odds, unchanged since 7 May, shifted today
Boris Johnson 25% +3
Dominic Raab 13% ±0
Michael Gove 9% -2
Jeremy Hunt 8% ±0
Followed by Hancock 6%, Stewart 5%, Javid 5%, Mordaunt 4%, Leadsom 4%
oddschecker.com/politics/briti…
If you think you know better, but don't want to bet actual money, enter the sweepstake: name the winner & runner-up docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAI…
Next Tory leader: chance implied by best odds
Boris Johnson 27% +2 since yesterday
Dominic Raab 13% ±0
Michael Gove 9% ±0
Jeremy Hunt 8% ±0
Followed by Hancock 6%, Stewart 5%, Javid 5%, Mordaunt 4%, Leadsom 4%
oddschecker.com/politics/briti…
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More from @JohnRentoul see all

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John Rentoul
@JohnRentoul
YouGov poll of Tory members suggests Boris Johnson would be run closest by Dominic Raab (59-41%) thetimes.co.uk/article/9edf22…
Good credibility boost for @ConHome surveys of party members – its latest had Johnson 54% vs Raab 46% (excl Neither/DKs) conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2…
64% of Tory members oppose May's Brexit deal thetimes.co.uk/article/9edf22…
Read 3 tweets
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John Rentoul
@JohnRentoul
Need a PhD on the symbolic importance in British politics of chlorinated chicken
Basically, Corbyn's message is: we agree with you but chlorinated chicken
Corbyn has chlorinated chickened out of further talks (HT @GBPHS)
Read 3 tweets
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John Rentoul
@JohnRentoul
May will be out of a job in weeks & Johnson has said he’s running – are the stars aligning for a Boris premiership? Me for @IndyVoices independent.co.uk/voices/boris-j…
The real deadline in all this might have been 15 June: May didn't want to be humiliated by the party's National Convention
She must have wanted to pre-empt a vote of no confidence, even if not binding, from "the people whence she came", as Peter Mandelson might have put it
Read 5 tweets

Related threads

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Sebastian Payne
@SebastianEPayne
Deal or no-deal, Brexiter or non-Brexiter as the next PM, the spectre of general election looms large for Conservative party.

Why? The Brexit policies of the two frontrunners would push towards a new Parliament.

My latest ft.com/content/543d8a… via @financialtimes
Boris Johnson + Dominic Raab will run on a platform of going back to Brussels and renegotiating the backstop, despite the EU’s insistence they aren’t interested.

Friends of Boris say that a “change in political will in No10 and No11” can make it happen.

ft.com/content/543d8a…
Senior Tories are not impressed:

“Reopening the WA would send us back to square one and would never get through parliament as it currently stands. Those who are advocating ripping up the deal need to be honest: their plans would necessitate an election.”

ft.com/content/543d8a…
Read 4 tweets
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Chris Henry #JC4PM2019
@Socialist_Chris
THREAD

So, I've not been able to sleep tonight. I have a feeling it might be the prospect of Michael Gove as Prime Minister.

"Why would that be then Chris?"

Glad you asked.

#CabinetCoup #Gove #ToryCoup
So obviously we've had two years of intractable Maybot. And obvs, we're all sick of it. Her "speech" to the nation last week, delivered half an hour late, fell as flat as Boris's leadership bid in 2016. Presumably the Conservative Party will be looking for a new approach? Uh-huh.
From 2014. Horowitz, a self-professed Conservative interviews Gove.

"The truth of the matter is that as our time together slips by, I come to realise that I might as well be interviewing Stonehenge. Everything I throw at him bounces back."

spectator.co.uk/2014/03/the-di…
Read 37 tweets
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Sergio Graziosi
@GraziosiSergio
What the hell is @jeremycorbyn doing?
Why is he enabling #Tory #Brexit?
Is this the final betrayal?
No, it isn't.
It's the predicted effect of decisions taken 2-3 years ago. All things considered, it's not as bad as it could have been (thanks to #StopBrexit crowd).

Thread.
1/n
To understand why, I need to outline 2 important mechanisms that most people, politicians and commentators seem to ignore, dismiss or simply don't get. They have different and somewhat opposite consequences, but are both decisive in the current & foreseeable predicaments.
2/n
1st and foremost: the biggest constraint that applies to political decision-making comes from the past decisions & policies.
It is a massive constraint.
Cameron COULD NOT convincingly campaign for #Remain, because his own policies CREATED the discontent channelled by #Leave.
3/n
Read 23 tweets
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Fionna O'Leary #FBPE #BrexitBetraysBritain
@fascinatorfun
@CommonsCMS @DamianCollins .

The real question is this.
What did the Governance Committee (See next tweets) know about these ad contents?

What did the see?
When?
What did they approve?
Turn a blind eye to once published?
What was their job if not to over see content & money?
Each one should be questioned IN DETAIL about what they saw when and what steps (in writing) did each take to prevent such grossly untruthful messages infiltrating social media.

Liam Fox
Iain Duncan Smith
Dominic Raab
Michael Gove
Boris Johnson
Steve Baker
Chris Grayling
3/

Priti Patel
Lord Lawson
Gisela Stuart
Matthew Elliot
Andrea Leadsom
Dominic Cummings
Lord Forsyth
Theresa Villiers
Frank Field
John Whittingdale
Read 11 tweets
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Jim Pickard
@PickardJE
A reminder of some of the senior establishment figures who sat on the campaign committee of Vote Leave, which lied about Turkey being about to join the EU

Liam Fox
Iain Duncan Smith
Dominic Raab
Michael Gove
Boris Johnson
Steve Baker
Chris Grayling
Priti Patel
Lord Lawson
and they randomly added Syria and Iraq to the map to make the prospect look even more unpalatable
turns out fake maps are easy to create
Read 3 tweets
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Jim Pickard
@PickardJE
A reminder of some of the senior establishment figures who sat on the campaign committee of Vote Leave, which has just been fined by the Electoral Commission:

Liam Fox
Iain Duncan Smith
Dominic Raab
Michael Gove
Boris Johnson
Steve Baker
Chris Grayling
Priti Patel
Lord Lawson
The Electoral Commission has asked the government for the ability to issue much more onerous fines...let’s see if they get it....
sorry meant to say “anti-establishment”
Read 6 tweets

Trending hashtags

#EndFamilySeparation #ToriesOut #CabinetCoup #Malthouse #brexit #Brexit #asylum #DUP #student #BylineFest #Gove #Texas #DominicRaab #Trump #Remain #Stephen #Labour #Cornwall #bbcqt #BINO #BrexitScammers #Dublin #LeaveEU #Belfast #Tory
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