Thread by @_FelixSimon_

Now that the peak of the #Strache-affair lies behind us, let's briefly recapitulate on what we've learned from Austria's newest political crisis.

A short thread on today's and yesterday's events, Strache's conspiracism, and the immediate future of Austrian politics…🇦🇹

First, I was partially wrong yesterday. I didn’t expect Kurz to call for new elections, given how powerful the FPÖ is. I thought it unlikely that he’d risk the gamble. Then again, Strache‘s comments were so devastating, that ultimately Kurz seems to have had not much of choice.

However, Kurz seems to have considered keeping the show on the road at least for a while. According to the APA, Kurz’s condition was that the FPÖ replace their powerful home secretary Herbert Kickl. The FPÖ allegedly refused. The rest is history.

Strache’s press conference was a masterclass in political spin. Go on the offence, deflect, paint yourself as the victim, accuse others, pander to your supporters. He knew that he was toast so he made the best of it. It was easy to see through this, but nonetheless impressive.

Interesting: How he tried to turn this into a mini-conspiracy. By blaming everyone from foreign intelligence & criminal networks to German satirist @janboehm (without any proof), Strache engaged in what pol scientists Rosenblum & Muirhead recently called “the new conspiracism“.

The new conspiracism, they argue, is basically conspiracy without the theory. You simply allude to stuff and throw in a lot of innuendo. Your support base does the rest. Evidence? Who needs evidence? Their book is quite good btw: press.princeton.edu/titles/17209.h…

Strache’s brazen attack maybe seemed misguided, but only at first glance. He had nothing to lose. The press conference was broadcast live to the nation and gave him the chance to deliver soundbites which can be taken up and distributed on social media by his supporters.

How all this will hurt or help the FPÖ in the upcoming elections remains to be seen. We have, however, a historic precedent. In 2002, then-chancellor Wolfgang Schüssel (ÖVP, Kurz’ party) terminated his party's coalition with the FPÖ over a scandal.

Schüssel called for new elections…and won. Before the coalition broke, ÖVP and FPÖ had been on par (27% each). Schüssel was able to turn that into 42% for the ÖVP, while the FPÖ slid back to a mere 10%. Will we see a re-run of this in 2019?

Well, it could happen. According to Austrian newspaper "Der Kurier", about 40% of the FPÖ's voters could see themselves voting for Kurz. That would be a lot. So holding new elections could pay off for Kurz and his party. We will see.

kurier.at/politik/inland…

Three more general observations: First, a point made by @milleridriss: Austria can call itself lucky that it is not yet worn out by endless political scandals. Try to imagine something like this happening to Trump. Would it change anything after all that has happened? I doubt it.

Second, for all those of you who cheer that the FPÖ is no longer in power: Austria has moved considerably to the right and Kurz praised the joint work of the two parties in his press conference earlier today. He might be somewhat more moderate than the FPÖ, but not much.

Third, make no mistake: The FPÖ will try to come back from this. They have done so before and surveys show that there is a hunger for their ideas and policies. Their core base is strong and not so easily rattled by scandals such as this. They will be back. The question is: when?