Thread by @sh_grewal

Why does Tunisia's military routinely side with protesters? I surveyed 72 senior military officers to find out. I discuss my findings today in the @monkeycageblog 1/8 wapo.st/2VUS491

This piece is based on a longer article for @ISQ_Jrnl, which you can read here: 2/8
academic.oup.com/isq/advance-ar…

In the survey, I asked the military officers how they would respond to an order to fire on protesters. Two factors emerged as predictors of defection. 3/8 #Tunisia

Factor 1: Identity. The majority of the military is recruited from Tunisia's interior regions - the same regions that are protesting. They thus sympathize with the protesters' demands. 4/8

In the survey, officers from the interior regions were almost twice as likely to side with the protesters as officers from the coast. 5/8

Factor 2: Corporate Interests. The Tunisian military had long been neglected and marginalized, and was thus unwilling to defend Ben Ali. While things have improved since 2011, it still seeks a larger role in national security decision-making. 6/8

In the survey, officers who were less satisfied with their level of influence over policy were more supportive of defection. 7/8

These findings are good news for Tunisia's nascent democracy, as they suggest that future presidents will be unable to rely on the military for repression. As I discuss in the piece, its composition in particular will be difficult to change. /END