Thread by @LeahWald

Did #hyperwave fail? Is #BTC still in a Hyperwave? And why are we now buying when we said it was going to $1k?

Let us try to answer the great Qs that @LucidInvestment, @Sawcruhteez and I have received below, in a true Bitcoiner style... a tweet storm ⛈

2/ Hyperwave didn’t just call for a return to Phase 1 at $1,000, it called for a buy in the $3,200 neighborhood and a sell above $18k. While it appears that a bottom was found before reaching the final $1,000 target that does not imply that Hyperwave failed

3/ Following the rules led to drastically outperforming the markets ROI since 2017 and it protected investors from the downside that followed.

But is bitcoin still in a Hyperwave?
The BTC Hyperwave is still in effect until a new all time high is reached.

4/ The recent price action has decreased the chances of returning to $1,000 but that target is not invalidated until a new all time high is established. That being said Hyperwave is far from the only tool at our disposal. Consensio is the backup plan.

5/ If BTC reverses before returning to $1k then #consensio protects us from getting left behind.The trend cannot fully reverse without Consensio giving buy signals. That recently happened and is why we have been jumping back into the market, allocating 20% of the desired exposure

6/ Don’t forget, All long term trends ARE fundamentally based.
Corollary: All short and intermediate term trends are NOT fundamentally based. We go after long term trends and look for situations where the technicals and fundamentals are in agreement

7/ why did hyperwave override consensio to get out of market but consensio overrode Hyperwave to enter back in?

Consensio is used to identify major trend reversals. It is extremely efficient at this, however it consistently falls short when in the Fourth Phase of a Hyperwave.

8/ Why? because the price moves so fast that it gets drastically overextended from the Moving Averages. Therefore it takes a lot time for the price to return to those areas, and even more to signal an exit.

9/ Hyperwave signaled an exit above $13,000 and Consensio did not signal exits until $9,000 and $6,000. Hyperwave will always override Consensio in the Fourth Phase of a Hyperwave (see chart in previous tweet)

10/ Consensio overrides HW for entries because it signals entries earlier&cheaper& because we do not know if another HW will develop. BTC returning to $1k would not necessarily be a buy signal-just that the HW was complete.Then we would have looked to Consensio to signal entries

11/ Another Hyperwave may develop from here, but it would not be wise to wait for that to happen before reentering. Even it does happen Hyperwave does not signal an entry until Phase 3. Consensio will signal entries when Phase 1 gets broken, or even earlier

12/ Even with Consensio turning bullish, it is very important to proceed carefully, ie. a 20% position as opposed to the 100% dictated by Consensio rules

13/ Why are we buying?
As the old adage, “the trend is your friend”, and it recently turned bullish. Therefore we are tentatively turning bullish and buying despite our confidence in the prior predictions. If the trend reverses then we will quickly get right back out

14/ Remember that Cash is king unless an asset class is trending UP and that only long term trends are fit for investments. We remained in cash as long as the long term trend was DOWN, we will continue buying as long as it remains UP.

Chart: Hyperwave & Consensio

15/ Is it still possible for BTC to hit the phase 1 line? Even though indicators are now bullish, there is historical precedence.

Yes, one example is sugar:

16/ Sugars price got within a whisker of returning to Phase 1, and then rallied back to near ATH territory, before selling off all the way back down to Phase 1. Just because the trend is turning bullish, the HW Phase 1 target is not invalidated until a new ATH is created.

17/ SO!! As long as the 30 week moving average is moving up the trend is bullish, but that could change in the blink of an eye. That is why it’s important to have a backup plan and be flexible.

18/ TA tools identify trends and trading with the trend is the name of the game. There are numerous TA tools that are available to identify trend strength. Including but not limited to the Seljen system, Consensio, RSI and TD Sequential @ToneVays

19/ Find the tools that work best for you, then use them to develop a gameplan and a backup plan(s). Then trust the tactics and execute the gameplan.

20/

“Luck,” continued the gambler reflectively, “is a mighty queer thing. All you know about it is that it’s bound to change. And it’s finding out when it’s going to change that makes you.” - Bret Harte (The Outcasts of Poker Flat)