* A key question is what 52% voted for on 23rd June 2016
* an essential source: Boris Johnson's 26th June 2016 column. First post-referendum account by Johnson (or any senior Vote Leave voice) of what he believed *in June 2016*
Nobody can disagree with his account *and* assert a broad consensus on referendum day 2016 across 52% behind any alternative account.
* 'Intense and intensifying European cooperation
* Brits keep rights to live + work in EU
* UK-EU free trade & access to single market
"The *only* change – it will not come in any great rush – is that the UK will extricate itself from the EU’s opaque legislation"
Primary source 2
What would Leave look like?
His 26.6.2016 column with focus on close partnership & gradualism very much matched Vote Leave campaign argument: would be a UK-EU treaty deal (2018-19) to "avoid unnecessary disruption"
"Bank what is sensible in this WA ... Junk the backstop" - and replace it "with a simple commitment by all sides that no need for a hard border"
"*Above all* we should prepare for the *unlikely* event of leaving on WTO terms ... We should vote down the deal, junk the backstop, recover our self-belief and go for SuperCanada – and we will thrive mightily"
"We have bottled it completely. It is time for the PM to channel the spirit of Moses in Exodus & say LET MY PEOPLE GO’
"Extend the implementation period to 2021 if necessary. Pay £39 billion. Ditch the backstop"
1. Ditch the WA Deal
2. Veto backstop, so Irish border part of future trade talks.
3. Make declaratory 2019 agreement that want 2021 supertrade deal
4. Make practical plans for 2021
5. Secure 2019-21 transition (pay £39 bn) in WA deal. OR find solutions to no deal (?)
We could have negotiated SuperCanada in time we had
But UK "will need to buy some time"
Need to make "better use of the otherwise redundant & humiliating 'Implementation period'.
"That means we will need the Withdrawal Ag - but not the current draft"
* Would Boris Johnson seek an extension beyond Oct 31st?
(There's quite a lot here to suggest he might well do so)
* Would he get one - and on what terms?
(Party conf 29.9-3.10.2019 + month beyond look dramatic & volatile)
- Boris Mayor of London 2008-16 + backbench MP from 2015-
- MP; co-leader of Vote Leave Feb-June 2016
- In Govt, July 2016-July 2018
- Backbencher & columnist, 2018-19
* Boris wants better Brexit deal, not no deal
* Unlikely to pledge "better deal or no deal" in 8-12 weeks? (End Oct)
* Probably would pursue an extension past Oct 2019
* "renegotiate" (has narrow objections to WA)
* "Shouldn't start from here" theme: will blame May