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Constitution Unit
@ConUnit_UCL
, 6 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
With the extension until October, a key question is whether there’s enough time for a new #Brexit referendum. The timetable has previously been analysed in our detailed work on referendum options here:

ucl.ac.uk/constitution-u…

Thread (1/5)

#PeoplesVote @UKandEU
Short answer: organising a referendum takes about 22 weeks, requiring legislation, plus question testing by Electoral Commission, then a 10 week campaign period (see our report: p. 14)

That’s 5 months, so just enough time by the 31 Oct deadline given the political will (2/5).
But meanwhile, as we said in our report, the European Parliament elections on 23 May could prove a kind of 'proxy referendum’: see below from p. 18.

Things have moved on, and we now have the @brexitparty_uk and @TheIndGroup (aka Change UK) all set to contest the elections (3/5)
With research suggesting that Brexit identity for many people has become stronger than party identity (see below), this could prove the key dividing line for 23 May (4/5).

ukandeu.ac.uk/emerging-brexi…
This could put major strain on Conservatives and Labour. Worth recalling that several senior Tories were expelled for supporting UKIP in 2009's EP elections (see below).

We may see more of the same this time, on a bigger scale, in both parties (5/5).

independent.co.uk/news/uk/politi…
And here's a bit of supporting evidence...

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Constitution Unit
@ConUnit_UCL
After narrow agreement in the Commons the Cooper bill now reaches the Lords. What will happen?

In short, it seems likely to pass as a) the Lords respects Commons' primacy and b) Brexiteers are weaker in the Lords

But other differences between the chambers matter

THREAD (1/9)
The Lords normally takes legislation slowly, with gaps between stages. But a business motion from Labour allows the Cooper bill to be 'taken through all its stages this day' (i.e. today).

Various amendments have been proposed to this, objecting. Being debated now. (2/9)
The first sign of the bill’s prospects will be how heavily these amendments are rejected. Likelihood is that they are rejected very strongly by peers. (3/9)
Read 10 tweets
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Constitution Unit
@ConUnit_UCL
ON THE BLOG: Following May's #Brexit defeat, Meg Russell and @alanjrenwick explore how long an extension to #Article50 we need, concluding May's suggestion of 2-3 months is not enough.

For various reasons...

THREAD (1/10)

constitution-unit.com/2019/03/12/how…

@uclspp @uclnews @UKandEU
Theresa May has previously suggested that we might ask for a ‘short, limited extension’ to #Article50, which should go ‘not beyond the end of June’. If a #NoDealBrexit is defeated tonight, as widely expected, MPs will vote on an extension on Thursday. (2/10)
But given that trying 'one more heave' to agree May's deal looks unrealistic, more major change is needed - and any such change takes time. First there would be a need to build support for a different kind of deal in Westminster (probably across party lines) and Brussels. (3/10)
Read 10 tweets

Related threads

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Mark Stone
@Stone_SkyNews
NEW: Following plenty of nudges from @eucopresident that patience and a long extension is the sensible #Brexit option... today, Donald Tusk‘s team will today formally tell EU officials from member countries to endorse a long extension until *31 March 2020* /1
A senior EU official has told me that Mr Tusk told officials from the 27 remaining EU countries yesterday that “The only reasonable way out would be a long but flexible extension. I would call it a 'flextension'.... /2
”... How would it work in practice? We could give the UK a year-long extension, automatically terminated once the Withdrawal Agreement has been accepted and ratified by the House of Commons....” /3
Read 7 tweets
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Mujtaba Rahman
@Mij_Europe
#Brexit continues to dominate UK debate and indeed our own coverage. But what about #EU risks in 2019? Thread for us EU watchers: @CER_Grant @JeremyCliffe @MMQWalker @MehreenKhn @pmdfoster @aqbyrne @PedderSophie @tom_nuttall @clichfield1 @FSanti_ @BBCkatyaadler
1/ % of May’s deal passing are rising. DUP/Eurosceptics sounding more conciliatory; big mood change yesterday. But still v long way to go. ERG suspect May will hide behind Commons on A50 extension. Peace moves could be overtaken by events (backbench amendments)
2/ EU’s concern with Brexit is growing; no longer simple occupation of TF50, WPA50, COREPER and Sherpas; many more voices now involved as clock runs down to no-deal. But #Brexit still not biggest concern for EU—yet. So what is?
Read 17 tweets
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Fuad Alakbarov ⁠⁠
@DrAlakbarov
The BBC is preparing to move its channel licences, in order to keep its ability to broadcast outside of the UK.

As a result of an impending no-deal Brexit, the BBC is looking at having its international channels licensed in either the Republic of Ireland or The Netherlands.
BBC's current licences issued by Ofcom are now highly likely to be no longer be valid for broadcast outside of the UK from the end of March 2019.
Many international broadcasters are now in the process of moving their regulatory bases out of London, ending London's dominance as Europe's main broadcasting hub.  #Brexit
Read 7 tweets
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tony nog #FBPE
@tony_nog
key question for any "will of the people" #Brexit debate
If we had cut through the irresponsible lies of #Brexit leaders & if people had realised what we now know, that all Brexits make us poorer & weaker for at least 10 years

Does anyone *really* think Leave would have won?
Never mind "the public didn't believe project fear", this is reality and yes, for many people they don't care about economic impacts

But not 52% - 52% did not believe we would be poorer & weaker and voted Leave anyway

Leave would never have won & would never win again if the public knew the reality of #Brexit

The only strategy they have is to lie that WTO/crash out/no deal is perfectly acceptable & reasonable & mislead people with "World Trade Deal" bullshit

Read 4 tweets
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
Brexit is the backstop; the backstop is #Brexit.

After 3 days in Belfast, talking to all sides, here's what I've learned - on the business and the politics of this deal. And its viability.

1/Thread
First the business/technical aspects of how a backstop would work.

I talked to business lobby groups, Stephen Kelly from @ManufacturingNI fresh back from talks with Barnier. And bosses of big companies.

The are surprisingly sanguine. /2

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
@ManufacturingNI If the backstop emerges as the British want (and that is still an 'if') it would look as follows:

- all-UK in a temporary customs Union
- Northern Ireland only in Single Market for goods, via devolution
- no checks GB-NI
- 'de-dramatised checks on regs NI-GB

/3
Read 26 tweets
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Lesley Miller
@LesleyMillercyp
#Brexit 1
Cadbury moved factory 2 Poland 2011 with EU grant.
Ford Transit moved 2Turkey 2013 with EU grant.
Jaguar Land Rover recently agreed 2 build a new plant in Slovakia with EU grant, owned by Tata, same company who trashed our steel industry & emptied workers pension funds.
#Brexit 2
Peugeot closed its Ryton (was Rootes Group) plant and moved production to Slovakia with EU grant.
British Army's new Ajax fighting vehicles to be built in SPAIN using SWEDISH steel at the request of the EU to support jobs in Spain with EU grant, rather than Wales.
#Brexit 3
Dyson gone 2 Malaysia, with EU loan. Crown Closures, Bournemouth (Was METAL BOX), gone 2Poland with EU grant,employed 1,200.
M&S manufacturing gone 2far east with EU loan.
Hornby models gone. In fact all toys & models gone from UK along with patents all with EU grants
Read 28 tweets

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