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A quick thread on Theresa May's departure, and what it means for those MPs (almost certainly a big majority) who are opposed to a 'no deal' Brexit. 1/
I'm proceeding on the assumption that the next PM will only win office by aiming either directly for no deal, or to change the deal (eg by demanding the removal of the backstop) in ways which the EU will not agree to. 2/
If that's right, we will be heading towards a 'no deal' Brexit at the end of October. Those who oppose that have, I think, to do (at least) two things. 3/
First, they must force the new PM to explain what 'no deal' means, and point out the many problems and contradictions. Is the aim an FTA arrangement? How will that be negotiated with the EU? What about the Irish border? 4/
There's a lot of good work on this, eg by @UKandEU. But... the Brexit Party went a whole election campaign without having its position analysed closely. The next PM can't be allowed to get away without close scrutiny. 5/
Second, and more important, they must devise a strategy to stop a 'no deal' Brexit. First and foremost, they must build a Parliamentary majority. Then, they must coalesce around a plan, and find a way to implement it. 6/
Things are difficult, because there are (too) many possibilities. Some want a different Brexit deal. Others want to remain. A PV between the WA and remain is (surely) no longer possible. So, some now want a PV between no deal and remain. Calls for revoke are growing. 7/
These groups are (when will lessons be learned?) only likely to be effective if they can (somehow) find a united position. My preference is revoke (as explained here), but I know many disagree. blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2018/12… 8/
In any event, seeking to impose their will on a Govt determined to pursue no deal will not be easy, as @jasimsoncaird and @ThimontJack have written in the last few days. 9/
There are huge challenges ahead; only by making the case against 'no deal' and by working together to present a single, workable, alternative can those against no deal hope to succeed. 10/10
