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Jeffrey Lewis
@ArmsControlWonk
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
The DPRK has released yet another statement explaining that negotiations in Hanoi collapsed because the United States insisted on North Korea's unilateral disarmament.
dprktoday.com/index.php?type…
I have said from the beginning of this farce that Kim is not offering to disarm North Korea. Insisting on disarmament as a condition for peace ensures the process will fail. The summits are not sincere efforts to make peace with North Korea as it is.
The only question is whether it fails safely or it fails dangerously like in The #2020Commission. I wrote the book the reason! Ratcheting up the pressure on a nuclear-armed country because you don't know what else to do is sheer madness.
amazon.com/Commission-Rep…
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Jeffrey Lewis
@ArmsControlWonk
Kim Jong Un has visited another important defense factory and the site of its November 2017 ICBM launch. KCNA and Rodong Sinmun identified the place as the Phyongnam General Machine Plant, although it appears to be the March 16 Factory in Pyongsong: 39.2818, 125.8676.
KCNA did not release exterior images, but the inside of the building is a good match for the March 16 Factory. One image is from June 2, 2019; the other is from November 4, 2017. You can tell which is which.
A 3 meter satellite image from @planetlabs on June 1 does show an unusual object near the building where missiles launchers are completed. That object coincides with the possible visit by Kim although at 3 meters it could be anything. I say coincide/feel free to say coincidence.
Read 11 tweets
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Jeffrey Lewis
@ArmsControlWonk
Kim Jong Un toured four defense plants in Kanggye province. I've pinned the locations. We should talk about what this tour might mean in terms of where things are headed with North Korea.
Also, you know how much I love North Korean machine plants! Let's take a look at each of the four in turn. Note that a lot of these plants have several names.
armscontrolwonk.com/archive/120666…
FIRST! The February 8 General Machine Factory. KCNA and Rodong Sinmun did not release any exterior shots of the this plant, but @mhanham and I located it several years ago: 40.631, 126.432
38north.org/2014/02/jlewis…
Read 16 tweets
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Jeffrey Lewis
@ArmsControlWonk
These rumors have been floating around for a while. I am still not sure I believe them, but they are getting awfully specific.
Here is the Chosun Ilbo story -- its only in Korean at the moment.
Recall @SecPompeo's rather inappropriate reaction when asked about the rumors.
Read 4 tweets

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I don't spook easily. I was trained to do military analysis, specializing in East Asia -- China, North Korea, Vietnam. I am more worried today than at any point since 1994 DPRK nuclear crisis. US stands on the precipice of a catastrophic mistake on the Korean Peninsula.
Trump Administration is now CLEARLY marching toward war on the Korean Peninsula. Tonights plaintive op-ed from Victor Cha -- Trump's discarded Ambassadorial nominee -- makes plain that Trump plan to launch an attack on North Korea that is both unnecessary and poorly considered.
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