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Matthew Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Brexit Party 1st in Westminster poll

Brexit Party: 26% (+2)
Labour: 22% (-7)
Conservatives: 17% (-5)
LibDems: 16% (+5)
Greens: 11% (+8)
SNP: 4% (nc)
Change UK: 1% (-2)
Plaid Cymru: 1% (+1)
UKIP: 1%

Opinium May 28-30
What is also worth noting is the broader collapse of public support for Britain's two main parties. Labour & the Conservatives are on just 39% combined. There is just so much going on that we have never seen before.
Westminster poll II

Labour 26% (-9)
Brexit Party 24% (+18)
Conservative 20% (-12)
Lib Dem 16% (+9)

via @DeltapollUK
Chgs. w/ Mar
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More from @GoodwinMJ see all

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Matthew Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ
The 2 main parties in Britain, once famous around the globe for its stable two-party system, are now on just 36%

Brexit, ironically, is making our politics more European

Brexit Party 26% (-)
Lib Dem 22% (+2)
Labour 19% (-1)
Conservatives 17% (-1)
Green 8% (-1)

YouGov Jun 9-10
It is tempting to view the fragmentation of British politics solely and simply through the lens of Brexit. This is wrong.

Fragmentation has been a long time coming, with rising support for challengers, rising volatility & declining partisan loyalty visible for many years
Brexit & fallout clearly exacerbating deeper trends, adding another layer onto a cake that was already pretty volatile; rise of SNP in Scotland; rise of UKIP in England; surprise Conservative majority in 2015; rise of Corbyn, all of which preceded 2016 vote for Brexit
Read 3 tweets
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Matthew Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ
Looks like I was spot on ..

Labour 30.9% (-17.2)
Brexit Party 28.9% (+28.9)
Cons 21.4% -25.5%

-Farage's ghost of First Past the Post returns
-Though on these numbers Brexit Party would bring down Tories
-Pressure on Corbyn to drift to Remain cools
#PeterboroughByElection
Two competing interpretations of the result for the Brexit Party. The charitable version is that the party is only 8 weeks old, had no data on voters, which hit its ground game, but still came within 700 votes of Labour & took more than enough to cost Tories next election
To that you might add that Peterborough is about 203rd on the list of "UKIP/Brexit Party" seats so a little further down than Rochester and Strood (which UKIP won) but a long way from most fertile territory
Read 4 tweets
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Matthew Goodwin
@GoodwinMJ
*After the centre-left in Denmark has endorsed some of the most restrictive immigration and integration policies in Europe.
Notice how these critiques focus only on vote shares and never on policy influence
And here's the broader trend, which is also often conveniently ignored by such critiques that focus only on vote shares
Public policy positions of mainstream parties have moved decidedly rightwards since the 1980s (Wagner & Meyer)
"a clear time trend to the ‘right’ pole of the policy space. Over time, all party types have shifted towards the ‘authoritarian’ end of the policy scale. Moreover, there is little difference in the trends for centre-left and centre-right mainstream parties"
Read 4 tweets

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Nigel Marriott
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How can Corbyn get into Downing St at the next election if one comes soon? Here is my thread looking at what needs to change from the 2017 #GeneralElection when #Labour won 262 seats. /1
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KidTempo
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I actually have his book on the desk behind me. Much like Machiavelli's The Prince, it's a manual on how to be a complete and utter bastard (and win). Many of the chapters point to why Leave won, others to why Remain lost. Based on its content, #FBPE need to get its hands dirty.
The article is very different, and it's Leavers that are the narcissists - they hold a belief in something and won't accept being called up on it, deny any facts they're shown as fake news and propaganda, while never questioning their own sources.
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Simon Cowley
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Wrote a thread a year ago in reply to a leave voter on why i changed my mind this is a more detailed journey to explain for anyone interested or from different walks of life
#peoplesvote #RemainerNow #labour #tory #LibDems #brexit
1965-2007
Born in Manchester 2 up 2 down early years in house demolished by council moved further out in another working class part of the city, lived on the streets for short time in the 80`s before living in a hostel getting a flat job and finally a home
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Richard Broughton
@Richard_Ampere
Thread: How are UK online news outlets covering #Brexit in 2018? An analysis, with data and charts!

Part 2: **Cabinet vs Shadow Cabinet**

#Labour #Conservatives

Again, usual spiel on being conducted in personal capacity
I’ll start off with saying that this really isn’t looking great for the Shadow Cabinet… So for the faint of heart or easily enraged, look away now. 1/
Across ~2000 news headlines on #Brexit since Jan 18, there were 463 references to Conservative Cabinet ministers, and just 48 for their Shadow counterparts.

In other words, 91% of news headline references to Cabinet-level MPs were to Government politicians. 2/
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Katy Hayward
@hayward_katy
*Brexit at the Border: Voices from local communities in the Central Border Region of Ireland/Northern Ireland*
An initiative by @QUBelfast & @europe_icban to gather data on the immediate & anticipated effects of #Brexit for those living on the #Border
qub.ac.uk/brexit/Brexitf…
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Here are some of the key findings from the report in slide form.
First an overview of the study itself:
Rich qualitative data (online survey & focus groups) gathered across the Central Border Region. Detailed examples & viewpoints heard from people on both sides of #border.
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Respondents to the survey came from across the 8 local authority areas of the Central Border Region, moreorless equally from both sides of the border. 50/50 male/female. 80% 31-65 yrs.
There were far fewer Leave-voting respondents so they got extra attention in our analysis.
3/10
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